Euro 2012
2012-06-17 - Denmark vs Germany
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group B
Sunday 17 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
Both of these nations will feel they have their destinies in their own hands, but it is clear that Germany are in the strongest position as a draw will secure them top spot. A draw may also be good enough for Denmark if Holland can beat Portugal in the other game in the group, so there is a danger that these teams can play out that way IF Holland get a strong lead early in the other game.
A win for Denmark can make things complicated for Germany as it will mean it is the Danes that will finish top of the group and likely secure the 'easier' route to the Final- that would likely be the case if both Portugal and Denmark win and the permutations start becoming very complicated.
Therefore it is no surprise that Joachim Low has been speaking about not being complacent and also that he will not be resting players for the sake of resting them and will be picking a team that will secure their passage into the Quarter Finals.
With Greece being the prize for the team that finishes top of the group, it is clear that Germans would like to take that position. As I said, it also means it is likelier the 'easier' path to the Final as it would mean missing the Spanish team until the Final at the earliest.
Wins over Holland and Portugal have left Germany in this very strong position in the group and it will take an exceptional set of results for them to be knocked out, although they are not taking any chances.
Denmark, on the other hand, almost put themselves in a very strong position too when they came back from 0-2 down against Portugal in their last game and forced the game back to 2-2 with just minutes left. However, a late Portugal winner has left them in a tough spot where they have to better the score the Portuguese get if they are to qualify.
A 1-0 win over Holland in their opening game was a touch fortunate, while the defending has been a little hit and miss and they are giving up a lot of chances. With Mario Gomez in the current vein of form he is in, that could cause problems all of their own.
Head to Head
These two nations last met in a friendly in Denmark in August 2010 and the game finished 2-2.
Denmark are actually unbeaten in their last three friendly games against Germany, although those matches do stretch back over the last 12 years.
This will be the first time they have met in a competitive game since the famous, or infamous, 2-0 win for Denmark in the European Championships Final of 1992.
Prediction
My biggest concern in this game is that the Germans and the Danes play out a draw knowing that could see both sides through, especially if Holland win the game. However, unless the Dutch grab a couple of goals very early in that game, I don't think Germany will want to take a risk of losing this game and finishing second in the group and likely have to play Spain in the Semi Final.
I expect Germany will come out and want to book their place in the Quarter Finals as soon as possible and then maybe rest a couple of their key players in the second half. They got the early goals in the game with Holland that gave them total command of that match and I expect they may look to do the same in this one.
Denmark don't need to go gung-ho in their approach unless things have changed in the Holland-Portugal game, so I imagine they will come in to try and dig in and work their way into the game. However, their defending has not been at its best and that could be a problem against a German side that has plenty of attacking potential.
The problem for the Danes is if they get behind, they are unlikely to find Germany in the same generous mood as Portugal were in the last game and they could find themselves caught on the counter if they begin chasing the game. That could allow the Germans to qualify with room to spare as they can take advantage of opponents pushing forward as we saw when they beat England at the last World Cup.
I expect Germany to be ahead by half time in this one and I think they can then go on and hurt Denmark on the counter attack and so I will take them to 'win both halves' at a decent 4.50.
The Pick :
Denmark 0-3 Germany
