NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Kansas State at Oklahoma Sooners
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 7:50pm
12:50am (British Time)
Preview
The Big 12 Conference is really going to get started this week as the under-rated Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) host the Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) in a battle of two unbeaten teams that will feel they have a great chance for a big season if they can come out this one with their goose egg intact.
The Oklahoma Sooners really had a hard time in their opening game of the season at UTEP and that is possibly a reason why not many are looking at them despite them being ranked as high as Number 6 as of this week.
With Landry Jones at Quarter Back and Kenny Stills and Justin Brown in receiving positions, the Sooners should have a decent chance of moving the chains through the air against the Wildcats Defense that is allowing over 250 yards per game through the air. Sometimes those statistics can be misleading as teams have had to pass to keep up with Kansas State, but it also has to be said that the Wildcats haven't faced playmakers like the ones they will see in Norman.
Oklahoma will need to slow the pass rush down if they are to be successful as the Offensive Line has struggled in the early going as could have been expected when losing Ben Habern and Tyler Evans for the season before this season started.
That is where the likes of Dominique Whaley and Damien Williams will be given the ball and asked to run as they have been early in the season. Oklahoma are averaging 7.1 yards per carry early on, but they are facing a pretty stout Kansas State Defense that has only allowed 2.9 yards per carry. That won't worry the Sooners as they pounded the Wildcats on the ground in their meeting a season ago.
Kansas State have played well on Offense this season and they are going to test this Oklahoma Defense, particularly the Defensive Line that has allowed backs to go at 4.2 yards per carry from their first couple of games. With Collin Klein at Quarter Back, the Wildcats will want use his ability to run the ball in this one and I expect they will find success through Klein or John Hubert.
However, the Wildcats can't afford to get into long, obvious passing situations as the Sooners have made hay getting to the Quarter Back, while the pass Defense has held teams to under 120 yards per game through the air. Granted Kansas State are the toughest team the Sooners have played so far, but they are a run first team that has barely averaged over 200 yards per game through the air this season.
Head to Head
Oklahoma crushed Kansas State by 41 points on the road last season and they have now won 5 in a row in the series, also going 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games.
The Sooners are 4-1 against the Wildcats in Norman, but they are just 1-3-1 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games against Conference rivals.
However, they are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 home games.
Kansas State are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against Conference rivals.
They are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games overall, going 5-1 on the road.
Prediction
I am locking this in before the spread climbs any further and am taking the Oklahoma Sooners to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Oklahoma have had two weeks to prepare for this game as they were on a bye week last week and they can fully focus with another bye following the game. After previous scares against Kansas State, I expect Bob Stoops would have been working overtime to get a plan in place to stop the Wildcats running the ball and forcing them to beat Oklahoma through the air. To back up my belief in Oklahoma off a bye week, they are 5-2 against the spread in that spot recently.
Second, I like the balance in the Oklahoma Offense that should open up the passing lanes even more than they have been for Kansas State already and I just think the Sooners will have much more success moving the chains and scoring points in this one.
Third, Oklahoma are a very good home favourite more often than not and they are 20-10 against the spread in that spot over the last few years.
The Pick :
Oklahoma Sooners 41-20 Kansas State
