NCAA Football
2012-09-29 - Virginia Tech Hokies at Cincinnati Bearcats
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Week 5
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 3:30pm
8:30pm (British Time)
Preview
The last time the Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) met a team from the Big East, they were beaten easily by the Pittsburgh Panthers. They will be thinking that at least this game is on a neutral as they get ready to face the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-0) in Landover.
One of the disappointments of the season so far is Logan Thomas as he was expected to be the next star Quarter Back coming out of College, but one who has struggled so far without an experienced support cast. That has led to bad decisions on his part and he can't afford to do that if the Hokies are going to have a successful season.
This could be a tough day for Thomas if he isn't more careful with the ball as the Cincinnati Defense has played well in their first couple of games. A bigger concern will be the protection Thomas gets as the Offensive Line has struggled to keep him upright and the Bearcats have been successful getting penetration into the backfield.
Cincinnati are only giving away 214 yards per game through the air, but this is probably still the toughest Offense they will have seen. However, one of the other problems Thomas has in the lack of support from a running game and not having a primary back to hand the ball to. Virginia Tech are moving the ball at 4.1 yards per carry, but they are inconsistent Offensively and will look for their Defense to keep things tight and perhaps create turnovers.
It is hard to get a real read on what the Bearcats can do Offensively as they have only played a couple of games so far this season. George Winn should have some success running the ball as the Hokies are allowing 4.2 yards per carry, but the pass Defense is the real strength and could give Munchie Legaux some real problems.
The Hokies have only allowed 143 yards per game through the air so far this season and they should be able to get some pressure on Legaux while they have been turning the ball over.
Head to Head
Virginia Tech beat Cincinnati by 13 points when they met at the end of the 2008 season in the Orange Bowl.
That means the Hokies have won 5 of their last 6 against the Bearcats but those games have been split 3-3 against the spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Cincinnati are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record.
Virginia Tech are 18-8-1 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
I am going to back the Virginia Tech Hokies to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, as impressive as Cincinnati were in their win over Pittsburgh, they will be facing the toughest Defense they have seen so far and could find it much tougher moving the chains this week than they have previously.
Second, the Bearcats are just 1-4 against the spread in recent games on neutral fields and they are just 1-4 against the spread following a bye week.
Third, I believe this Virginia Tech Defense can cause Cincinnati plenty of fits and my only real concern is the play of the Offense. If they keep away from turning over the ball, the Hokies should have too much about them.
The Pick :
Cincinnati Bearcats 17-24 Virginia Tech Hokie
