NFL Football
2012-09-30 - New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 30 September 2012 - Kick Off 4:25pm
9:25pm (British Time)
Preview
If there was one good thing to come out of the Green Bay Packers (1-2) disgusting loss to the Seattle Seahawks, it is the fact that the replacement referees are no longer in a position to ruin any more games although I don't think the Packers will see it that way.
The reason for that is that this game between the SuperBowl Champions of 2009 and 2010 is already a 'must win' for both teams. The New Orleans Saints (0-3) have dug themselves into a huge hole and it says something that their losses have come against teams that are a combined 3-6... That is to say, the teams that have beaten New Orleans have lost every other game they have played.
Neither team can afford to lose any more ground in their respective Divisions, while this game could also be a huge tie-breaker when it comes to Play Off positions later in the season.
It is understandable that the whole Green Bay team felt robbed last week and it will be interesting to see how they come out and play on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers and the Offense have had a sticky time getting themselves in sync, but playing the Saints could be the perfect tonic for them.
New Orleans have allowed 477 yards per game so far this season, but playing the likes of Washington, Carolina and Kansas City is far below the level the Packers have. Rodgers should be able to pass the ball at will against this Saints Defense and he is very likely to put up his biggest numbers of the season, although the Offensive Line needs to do their job and give him more protection.
I expect Cedric Benson will also find some success running the ball as the Saints are giving up 5 yards per carry and I expect the Packers will move the chains consistently in this one, while also showing off the big play ability that has been missing in the first three weeks.
It's hard to see Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints struggling as they are, but that is the reality of the situation as the loss of Sean Payton and Joe Vitt has hurt them far more than I envisioned. Brees has helped the Saints to 284 yards per game through the air, but much of that is when they are playing catch up and they just don't have the consistency that made them so dangerous last season.
The Offensive Line has struggled and are coming up against Clay Matthews who has been on fire in the early going, while the likes of Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy are improving. The Packers have actually been pretty good against the pass thanks to the pressure they are getting and Brees may have a tough time finding the time to get the ball vertically down the field.
It has been possible to run the ball on the Packers so I imagine we will see a few Pierre Thomas runs from the backfield, while I also imagine the Saints using some screens to give Darren Sproles the ball on space and look for him to make a play. Green Bay have allowed 5 yards per carry so far this season, but the Saints need to keep up with any scoring the Packers do if they are to exploit this match up.
Head to Head
Green Bay beat New Orleans by 8 points here in the opening game of last season and they covered the 4.5 point spread.
New Orleans had won the previous 2 in the series, both straight up and against the spread.
The Packers are 4-1 in the last 5 here against New Orleans going back to 1989.
Other Interesting Trends
Green Bay are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 home games.
New Orleans are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against teams from the NFC.
Prediction
I am not overly keen with this spread being above a touchdown, but I am sticking with the Green Bay Packers (who should be 2-1 against the spread this season) to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Green Bay are going to be super-motivated in my opinion after what they will feel is an injustice from Monday night and I believe the Offense is going to take full advantage of the porous New Orleans Defense.
Second, the Saints have looked lost so far this season and have been beaten by far worse teams than the Green Bay Packers. With things not being right, I would be surprised if this notoriously weaker outdoors team can turn it on here at Lambeau Field.
Third, the Packers are 10-3 against the spread in recent seasons when coming in off a straight up loss.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 34-24 New Orleans Saints
