Russian League
2012-11-19 - Kryliya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moscow
A Sports Betting Pick by Jason
Football : Russia : Premier League
Monday, 19th November 2012 - Kickoff 1445
I hate to lock money 4 days before the match, but I was ready to back Lokomotiv Moscow here already last week-end when I was watching their match against Anzhi and just waited for the odds.
Kryliya Sovetov
The hosts Kryliya Sovetov are in the deep crisis.
Kryliya have 5 losses in a row and have gone 4 league games in a row without scoring a goal.
As a result their coach Kobelev asked for a resignation which was just confirmed. So his assistant coach will be in charge for this match..
But the problem is not the coach of course. With the squad Kryliya have they were destined to fight against the relegation since the start of the season and their 12th place at the moment is the best they can hope for in the end.
I'm trying to think of any reason why their bad run might come to an end on Monday, but I really can't. And especially against Lokomotiv.
Lokomotiv Moscow
Now, if you're just looking at the visitor's recent result you might think you would never ever back a team without a win in the last 7 games.
But Lokomotiv have a creditable 1-1 draw against Zenit St Petersburg away from home, and their overall performance in last two games makes me think the bad run is over.
Lokomotiv Moscow were really solid against league leaders CSKA and in a 50/50 match conceded a goal in the dying seconds to lose it 2-1 in the end.
Even a better performance last weekend against the reach boys from Anzhi when Lokomotiv have created 7 clear cut chances but the game has finished at 1-1 somehow.
But you can see the confidence is back and needless to say on paper Lokomotiv are a class a head comparing to Kryliaya. Lokos's away form at 3-2-2 is ok considering they are 8th in the league at the moment.
Everyone in the club understand that 3 points is a must here considering the condition of their opponents. I expect Bilic's fully motivated side to win here.
The Betting Verdict
I rate this match as a 60% win chance for Lokomotiv only because Loko are playing away and the pitch condition might not be the greatest in Samara (otherwise Loko would have a better chance).
Have to mention though the pitch was horrible in Moscow last week, but Loko still managed to create 7 great opportunities. Against Anzhi as well.
Take Lokomotiv to win - the 1.80 offered by bet365 still represents value. But this bet is more about the momentum.
The Pick :
Kryliya Sovetov - Lokomotiv Moscow
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Lokomotiv Moscow to win @ 1.80P.S. I expect the odds around 1.5-1.6 before KO, that's why I have to back it now.
