English FA CUP
2019-01-26 - Newcastle United vs Watford
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English FA Cup Fourth Round
Saturday 26th January 2019 - Kick Off 3pm
Newcastle United
Last weekend could be a very important one for Newcastle United after a thumping win over Cardiff City dragged them out of the bottom three in the Premier League table. Rafa Benitez has made it clear his squad can't really cope with the distraction of a long Cup run considering the teams he has selected in the FA Cup Third Round tie with Blackburn Rovers, but Newcastle United did manage to get through to the Fourth Round after a Replay.
A controversial goal in Extra Time allowed Newcastle United to move ahead in the Replay at Ewood Park and they worked their way through to this Fourth Round tie with Watford. In recent years the FA Cup has been seen as little more than a nuisance by Newcastle United managers and they have not reached the Fifth Round of the competitions since the 2005/06 season.
Newcastle United had not won any of 7 games in all competitions in normal time before their crushing win over Cardiff City to jump ahead of The Bluebirds in the Premier League table. That result also ended a run of 5 games without a win at St James' Park for Newcastle United who had been beaten in 3 of those games.
With games against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur to come in the next eight days I think Rafa Benitez will make wholesale changes for this Cup tie as he did in the last Round. There are a number of players recovering from injury issues that may be given some minutes in this fixture, but key players should be wrapped in cotton wool for the League games to come.
Watford
Javi Gracia is making a big impact at Vicarage Road and he is the first Watford manager who has maintained standards for longer than a few months. That has seen the manager rewarded with a new contract to extend his time with Watford and the strong League performances should mean they are able to give the FA Cup a real go this season.
The Hornets may not have gotten past the Fourth Round in the last couple of seasons, but they were Semi Finalists as recently as the 2015/16 season in the FA Cup. A comfortable win at non-League Woking saw Watford progress to the Fourth Round of the Cup and Gracia may be taking it much more seriously than his counterpart at Newcastle United which gives his team every chance of making it through to the Fifth Round.
Watford have lost 1 of their last 9 games in all competitions and they are unbeaten in 5 going into the weekend after a goalless home draw with Burnley last weekend. They are unbeaten in 5 away games in all competitions and Watford have won 3 of their last 4 while they have scored at least two goals in each game during that unbeaten run on their travels.
It was a much changed team that won at Woking in the Third Round, but that was off the back of the hectic festive period and against an opponent much lower down the League system than Newcastle United. Abdoulaye Doucoure has been linked with a move from Vicarage Road so may not be risked, but Will Hughes and Craig Cathcart should be available.
Head to Head
Watford and Newcastle United have played both League games against each other this season and it is the latter who have taken four points.
The game at St James' Park ended 1-0 to Newcastle United which snapped a run of back to back home losses against Watford.
Prediction
Determining the motivation of managers is a big key to working out how some of these FA Cup Fourth Round ties are going to go and I have to believe Javi Gracia is much more interested in a deep Cup run than Rafa Benitez is.
The layers seem to have that in their minds too with Watford going to the North East as a considerable favourite to win this match. They are odds against, but Watford being favoured to win at Newcastle United is always a big deal and much of that has to be down to the teams selected by Newcastle United in the two FA Cup Third Round ties against Blackburn Rovers.
The Spaniard has made it clear that the Premier League is the priority and the squad is not able to cope with the Cup and League together. With two League games to be played in the next eight days, Benitez may be resting key players and giving some of the young players another chance to impress.
Beating Blackburn Rovers is one thing, but beating a motivated Watford is another altogether and I would imagine Gracia will be keen on overseeing a strong Cup run. Performances in the Premier League suggest Watford have more than enough to survive in the top flight so there is no reason to not have a go at the FA Cup.
Things are complicated by the midweek set of Premier League games to come, but Watford are not due out until Wednesday and points may not be as important as getting through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup. At least that may be the case for the next few days and I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap to earn their place in the Fifth Round.
I will back Watford on the 0 ball Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw because it is difficult to believe in them as the away favourite. However Watford have been scoring enough goals on their travels to make me believe they won't lose and I will look for them to have enough experience to edge out a much changed Newcastle United team.
The Pick :
Newcastle United 1-2 Watford
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Watford 0 Asian Handicap at 1.75 with BetVictor
