ENGLISH COMMUNITY SHIELD BETTING PICK - ARSENAL V LIVERPOOL

English Community Shield

2020-08-29 - Arsenal vs Liverpool

A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner

Arsenal v Liverpool
Football : England : Community Shield
Venue : Wembley Stadium
Saturday 29th August 2020, 17:30hrs

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Arsenal

Less than a month after winning the FA Cup against Chelsea, Arsenal are back at Wembley to play in the Community Shield against Liverpool.

It's been a very small break with Arsenal having a mini-pre-season according to manager Mikel Arteta with just two training sessions so far and a 4-1 win over League one side MK Dons.

Arsenal have been somewhat strengthened over the summer getting Brazil winger Willian on a free transfer, and Brazilian center back Gabriel Magalhães from Lille.

The Gunners have also secured defenders Cedric Soares and Pablo Mari on permanent deals after initial loans, while center back William Saliba is in the squad after joining from Saint-Etienne last July before being loaned back to the French club for the season.

It's also likely that star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang agrees a new deal this week.

Liverpool

Liverpool have had a slightly longer break - finishing last season on July 26th - and they are slightly more advanced into pre-season having played two pre-season friendlies against Stuttgart (W 3-0) and Austria Salzburg (D 2-2).

The Reds had a stunning start to last season and were unstoppable for the first six months of the season virtually wrapping up their first Premier League title by the end of January.

Only the emergence of the Covid Virus could threaten Liverpool's league triumph, but in the end the league continued and Liverpool clinched the title that they richly deserved.

Liverpool have been very quiet in the transfer market, with only defender Kostas Tsimikas of Olympiakos coming in at this stage.

The Background

This Community Shield game is far too early, but given the rescheduled season start of mid-September and other competition dates it really is the only time that the game can be played.

Teams are really focused on the premier league start date of September 12th - but will have to also deal with a week long interruption for two UEFA Nations games in early September.

So this game is probably a good hit-out for the two clubs, albeit in the very surreal surroundings of a 90,000 seat stadium that's almost completely empty.

My first thoughts in looking at the two sides is that Liverpool will be obvious favourites to the general public and therefore the bookmakers pricing, but I was surprised to see how heavy those prices were.

Liverpool have not been in all-conquering form since mid-February, and in their last 15 competitive games, Liverpool had an 8-2-5 record losing to Atletico Madrid, Watford (!?), Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have been improving under Arteta and their last 15 competitive fixtures resulted in a 10-1-4 record, with notable wins over Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea.

The Betting Verdict

So where should we be betting in this match that really is a pre-season fixture in an empty stadium?

I make Liverpool favourites to win at around 45% probability, Arsenal an outside chance at 33%, with a 90 minute draw at 22%.

Clearly you have to respect the champions, and I do make Liverpool favourites to win the game in 90 minutes but not anywhere as strong as the bookmakers prices - I'd want even money at least and preferably odds of 2.20+

I can understand why Liverpool fans will back their side after some stunning performances last season, but the bookmakers are expecting the weight of public money to fall here and the price is awful so this is not a bet for me.

Instead, I look at the prices of 4.50 to 5.00 on an Arsenal victory and I like those odds even if I think that it's only a 1 in 3 chance of coming off.

I'll take Arteta's Arsenal to win here at good prices, and I think that's a good play for the neutral as well.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Arsenal to win at 5.00 with BetVictor

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