World Cup
2022-12-18 - Argentina vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: World Cup Final
Sunday 18th December 2022 - Kick Off 6pm (3pm UK Time)
This game is live on TV
Argentina
Eight years have passed since Argentina last competed in the World Cup Final when beaten in Extra Time by Germany and their previous Final in 1990 ended with a defeat to West Germany. Lionel Messi is looking to place his name right alongside Diego Maradona by leading Argentina to their third World Cup title and the first since Maradona inspired the nation in 1986.
A tough thirty-five minutes saw Croatia dominating the ball in the Semi Final on Tuesday, but Argentina found one pass that led to a Penalty and Messi converted to send them on their way. They created the better chances the rest of the way and Argentina found the clinical edge to their football that Brazil missed in the Quarter Final and that saw the Copa America Champions come through with a 3-0 win over the tough, experienced Croatians.
Argentina were stunned in their opening fixture in the 1990 World Cup and ended up reaching the Final before falling short against West Germany. This current group of players have been much more convincing than their 1990 counterparts in recovering from the defeat to Saudi Arabia and Argentina have scored at least twice in their last 5 World Cup fixtures. Wins over Mexico, Poland, Australia and Croatia have come in normal time, but Argentina blew the 2-0 lead over the Netherlands before beating that opponent on Penalties in the Quarter Final.
Marcos Acuna and Gonzalo Montiel are both back from a suspension. Lionel Scaloni made a tactical tweak in the Semi Final win over Croatia and is likely going to make a couple of changes in the Final to adjust to the opponent.
Predicted Line Up: Emiliano Martinez, Molina, Acuna, Romero, Otamendi, Fernandez, De Paul, Mac Allister, Di Maria, Messi and Alvarez (4-3-3)
France
The last time any nation were able to win back to back World Cups was all the way back in 1962 when Brazil defended the crown won four years earlier in Sweden. Defending Champions have not had much success in recent times with the last three failing to even get out of the Group Stage at the next World Cup, but France have become the first nation to have reached the Final four years after winning the trophy since Brazil in 1998.
Before the tournament began, injuries looked to have hit France at a bad time, although they remained one of the favourites to win the trophy in Qatar. Performances in the tournament have not always been the best, but goals either side of half time were enough for France to see off Morocco in the Semi Final and Didier Deschamps has to be given some credit for the successes in recent major international tournaments.
France had won 1 of 6 Nations League games played in the build up to the World Cup Finals and they had lost 3 of those fixtures, but they have found some of their better form in the World Cup Finals. A defeat to Tunisia in a dead rubber in the Group Stage aside, France have beaten Australia, Denmark, Poland, England and Morocco on their way to the Final and have scored at least twice in each of those victories.
It has been a largely settled starting eleven for Didier Deschamps following the injury to Lucas Hernandez in the opening fixture at the Finals. With one game left to play, the manager’s main selection question has to be whether they are going to play Ibrahima Konate or Dayot Upemacano at centre half to partner Raphael Varane. Adrien Rabiot should be passed fit having missed the Semi Final with an illness.
Predicted Line Up: Lloris, Kounde, Theo Hernandez, Varane, Upemacano, Rabiot, Tchouameni, Griezmann, Dembele, Mbappe and Giroud (4-3-3)
Head to Head
This will be the thirteenth meeting between France and Argentina and it is the South American nation who have won half of the previous 12 games.
France have won 3 times in those meetings, including a 4-3 win in the Last 16 at the 2018 World Cup, the last time the French and Argentina have faced one another.
That was the third meeting between the nations at the World Cup after 1930, 1978 and 2018.
Argentina won the first 2 of those games with France the last, while the winning team in 1978 and 2018 went on to win the World Cup, as will be the case on Sunday in 2022.
Prediction
At the start of the World Cup a little under a month ago, most would have been pretty happy with a France vs Argentina World Cup Final.
When you analyse the tournament as a whole, you could make a case for these two nations being the best teams and deserving of a chance to win a third World Cup. Both Argentina and France will be chasing that prize and there are some big players that will be out there looking to make the difference for their nation.
Take away a single upset each, even if France's defeat to Tunisia was in a match where they rested the majority of their first team, and these two nations have impressed.
Argentina did need Penalties to see off Netherlands in the Quarter Final, but they blew a 2-0 lead on the day and have largely been confident at both ends of the field. Since losing the opening match to Saudi Arabia, Argentina have scored at least twice in their next 5 games at the World Cup and they crushed Croatia with some clinical finishing in their 3-0 win in the Semi Final.
However, the underlying numbers have suggested that Argentina have been a little unfortunate to concede in games against Australia and Netherlands and they were pretty comfortable against Croatia. Set pieces and crosses are a problem for the defenders and I do think that is going to be an issue for Argentina on Sunday, although they will feel they can become the latest team to create chances against France.
The defending Champions did earn a clean sheet in the win over Morocco in the Semi Final, but that is the first one that France have produced in the tournament. Anyone who watched that Semi Final will wonder how Morocco did not breach the French defence and I do think Lionel Messi and Julian Alvarez will have opportunities to hurt the French defence, which has not been protected as they would have been if Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante had been available for selection.
Both teams look like they will be better going forward than defensively, although the edge has to be with Argentina when you look at their overall defensive numbers. Unfortunately I do think the set pieces are going to pose a threat to them, while the pace of Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele are going to be really important whenever France turn the ball over.
Didier Deschamps also looks to have an edge in the managerial dugout- the poor Euro 2020 defeat to Switzerland in the Last 16 aside, Deschamps has led France to the Final in Euro 2016 before winning the 2018 World Cup and reaching another Final in 2022.
His experience is going to be important, but Argentina have plenty of confidence having won the Copa America last year. Add Lionel Messi playing with the feeling of destiny behind him and this feels like a World Cup Final that could really go against the norm of these showpiece events over recent years.
11 of the first 13 World Cup Finals ended with at least three goals shared out, but football has changed since the early high-scoring fixtures and it has seen 6 of the last 8 World Cup Finals end with two or fewer goals shared out.
The exceptions have both involved France in winning efforts (3-0 over Brazil in 1998 and 4-2 against Croatia four years ago), but prior to the Final in Russia, three World Cup Finals in a row had been won in Extra Time.
Pressure can really make these big games grind into something of a fixture where neither team wants to make a mistake, but I don't think either France or Argentina can rely on their defences to keep them in the game. That may force the managers to employ a more attacking approach and I do think this could be another recent World Cup Final involving France which ends with plenty of goals shared out.
Four years ago, France beat Argentina 4-3 in the Last 16 in a really good fixture. I am not sure we will see seven goals this time, but a first half strike could open the Final up with two teams who have attacking talent to break down the other.
9 out of the 14 Knock Out games played in Qatar have ended with three or more goals shared out and I am going to look for this fixture to be one of the more entertaining World Cup Finals we have seen since 1990.
Picking a winner is not easy, although you have to perhaps give Argentina a very slight edge with the stronger defensive numbers produced through the course of the tournament. France are experienced having won the trophy four years ago with a number of players involved in that win over Croatia and they have not had any Extra Time games in the tournament, which should mean a pretty fresh eleven to pick.
Overall, my main lean is that this will be a World Cup Final to remember and one that features plenty of attacking football for the neutrals to enjoy.
Lionel Messi will either crown himself the greatest of all time or Kylian Mbappe will officially begin a new generation of dominant footballers, but either way, it should be fun to find out on Sunday afternoon in Doha.
The Pick :
Argentina 2-1 France
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.50 with Bet365
