World Cup
2023-09-12 - Bolivia vs Argentina
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: World Cup Qualifier
Tuesday 12th September 2023 - Kick Off 5pm
British Time: 9pm
Bolivia
It has been almost thirty years since Bolivia last competed at the World Cup Finals and they have had little impact at the Copa America since finishing Runners Up in 1997. The next World Cup is going to be played with an expanded format and there will be potentially as many as seven South American nations representing the Confederation at the Finals, although Bolivia will still be an underdog to be one of those.
Only ten nations will be competing in the South American Qualifiers, which have retained the format they have been using for a number of years, but Bolivia have finished in the bottom two places in each of the last five Qualifying Groups. The thumping 5-1 loss at Brazil will not determine where they finish in this section, but Bolivia have been poor travellers for a long time and it is expected to hold them back again.
Bolivia have won 1 of their last 12 games played and they have been beaten 10 times in that run, including the opening World Cup Qualifying loss in Brazil. The altitude in La Paz has long been an 'equaliser' for Bolivia in these World Cup Qualifiers, but they did lose 4 of their 9 home Qualifiers ahead of the 2022 World Cup. However, Bolivia did win 4 Qualifiers here and so have to be given due respect.
Argentina
Nine months have passed since Argentina were crowned World Champions for the third time, so it will feel strange to see them back in World Cup Qualifying action already. The pressure may have lifted from the shoulders of some of the players involved, but new faces have also joined the squad and fans will be expecting them to defend Argentina's crown when the World Cup rolls around in June 2026.
Two years of Qualifying matches will be played first and it would be an upset like few others if Argentina were not able to finish in the top six of this ten team Qualifying Group. Another Lionel Messi goal earned Argentina three points to open the section at home against Ecuador, but it will be a challenge to add another three points in this tough away fixture.
Argentina may have needed Penalties to beat Netherlands and France at the World Cup, but they are unbeaten in 11 games and have won 9 of those in normal time since the shocking 1-2 loss to Saudi Arabia to open the 2022 World Cup. The nation are unbeaten in 10 away World Cup Qualifiers and Argentina have won 6 of those fixtures played.
Head to Head
Argentina have won 3 in a row against Bolivia since their upset loss in the World Cup Qualifiers in March 2017.
That was in the 2018 World Cup Qualifying Group, but Argentina won 1-2 in La Paz and beat Bolivia 3-0 at home in the 2022 Qualifiers, while also thumping them 4-1 in the Copa America in June 2021.
Bolivia had been unbeaten in 3 home World Cup Qualifiers against Argentina and had won 2 of those before losing 1-2 in October 2020.
Prediction
Brazil might have secured the biggest away World Cup Qualifier win over Bolivia since Ecuador in 2001 in the last Qualifier hosted in La Paz, but it has generally been a very difficult place to visit for the other nations in this Confederation.
You only have to ask Argentina fans who have seen their team embarrassed 6-1 in the 2010 World Cup Qualifying Group and also lose here in the 2018 World Cup Qualifying section.
Last time around Argentina needed to come from a goal behind to beat Bolivia 1-2 in La Paz and the expectation is that this World Cup Qualifier could be another tight, competitive game for the World Champions.
Bolivia are not a team that lose too many games by big margins at home, even if they have regularly been finishing in the bottom two of the eventual Qualifying Group. There is also perhaps less pressure on the top South American nations now that the expanded World Cup offers six guaranteed places in the Finals and seventh place having an 'inter-Confederation Play Off', where the team from this Confederation would be a big favourite.
That may mean a lack of intensity in some of the away Qualifiers, but Argentina have momentum behind them and Lionel Messi can inspire again.
The likelihood is that Argentina may do just enough to take the three points and so using a Dutch Calculator to back the World Champions to win by either one or two goals may be the smartest approach. You can do that to get an odds against price for the Argentina win and that looks a good angle for this World Cup Qualifier.
The Pick :
Bolivia 1-2 Argentina
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Argentina to Win by One Goal (Handicap + 1 Draw) at 3.60 with Bet365and Argentina to Win by Two Goals (Handicap + 2 Draw) at 4.75 with Bet365
for a Combined Price = 2.05 with Bet365
