World Cup
2023-09-12 - Peru vs Brazil
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: World Cup Qualifier
Tuesday 12th September 2023 - Kick Off 10pm
British Time: 3am (Wednesday 13th September)
Peru
There must still be some frustration that Peru failed to beat Australia to take their place in Qatar for the 2022 World Cup having finished fifth in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group. They finished above Colombia, Chile and Paraguay to earn a spot in the Inter-Confederation Play Off, but Peru's loss on Penalties will have hurt and leave the squad looking to redeem themselves this time around.
Finishing fifth this time would mean an automatic berth at the 2026 World Cup and that has to be the aim for Peru who have reached the final four of each of the last two Copa America tournaments played. The goalless draw in Paraguay to begin the World Cup Qualifiers will feel like a point gained for Peru, although backing that up will be a challenge on match day 2 of the Qualifying Group.
Peru have won 1 of their last 5 games played and have been beaten by both Germany and Japan in that time. Those defeats were both away from home and Peru are actually unbeaten in 11 in front of their own fans. That run includes being unbeaten in 6 home World Cup Qualifiers during which time Peru have won 4 times.
Brazil
You can never take anything for granted and a year is a long time in football, but it does sound like Carlo Ancelotti will be taking over as manager of Brazil in June 2024. For now Fernando Diniz will be guiding the team on a twelve month contract after the very disappointing end to Tite's tenure as manager of the national team.
They may have won the Copa America under Tite, but for a nation that prides itself on its World Cup record, back to back Quarter Final defeats in 2018 and 2022 were never going to be good enough for Brazil. If they can confirm Carlo Ancelotti's appointment, Brazil fans will be hoping a first World Cup success since 2002 could be secured in 2026, while most will expect Qualification to be little more than a formality.
Brazil did thump Bolivia 5-1 to open their Qualifying campaign for 2026, but they have won 2 of 6 games prior to that and been beaten in 2 of 3 since being dumped out of the World Cup Quarter Final by Croatia. The team are unbeaten in 35 World Cup Qualifiers, which includes 17 away Qualifiers played. In the 2022 World Cup Qualifying Group, Brazil did win 6 of 9 away Qualifiers played.
Head to Head
Brazil have beaten Peru 4 times in a row since a surprise international friendly defeat in September 2019.
3 of the 4 wins have come by at least two goal margins, including in both 2022 World Cup Qualifiers (2-4 in Lima, 2-0 at home).
Peru have lost their last 2 home World Cup Qualifiers against Brazil.
Prediction
Barring something staggering happening, Brazil should Qualify for the 2026 World Cup without too many problems, but there is pressure on the players.
After another underwhelming World Cup as far as the Brazilian standards go, the team are looking for momentum to take into the Copa America to be played next summer. Recent results have not been very good, but the big win over Bolivia gives Brazil some momentum.
Of course this is a much tougher test in Lima compared to hosting Bolivia, who are expected to be 9th or 10th again in this Qualifying Group, but Brazil will be looking to show they can come again and set out a marker for the years to come.
Peru have been tough to beat here and did have a decent home record in the last set of World Cup Qualifiers, but Brazil, Argentina and Colombia all won here handily.
It should be noted that Brazil have won their last 2 World Cup Qualifiers here, while in general they have been solid winners when securing three points in away World Cup Qualifiers. In their last 15 away World Cup Qualifying wins, 14 have been by at least two goal margins and Brazil can be backed to cover the Asian Handicap as they look for a fifth win in a row against this continental rival.
The Pick :
Peru 0-2 Brazil
