German Bundesliga
2023-12-16 - Mainz vs Heidenheim
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Mewa Arena – Mainz
Saturday, 16th December 2023 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Mainz
Just one Bundesliga victory in their last 19 games points to Mainz’s ongoing struggles since last season. They have only nine points behind their name, which looks too little for this stage of the season and means almost inevitable relegation.
However, Mainz has slightly improved recently. They lost only once in their last six Bundesliga matches, with four of those games ending in draws. They missed a huge opportunity last week, playing a goalless draw against direct bottom rivals Koln, so now they must go harder for points in this game.
Last week’s goalless draw was Mainz’s fifth consecutive Bundesliga match that ended with under 2.5 goals.
An interesting thing about Mainz this season is that they are the only Bundesliga team without a penalty goal. They had four penalties whistled for them, and they missed them all!
Heidenheim
Heidenheim is five points above Mainz in the direct relegation spot, so they are in a relatively comfortable position. To me, they look capable of staying up but must improve further and get more wins in the second part of the season after the winter break.
Interestingly, Heidenheim is one of the most dangerous Bundesliga sides after set-piece situations. So far, they have scored a whopping 11 of their 21 goals after set-pieces, with only Borussia Monchengladbach being in front of them in that category (12 goals).
Heidenheim played an excellent last game against SV Darmstadt 98, beating them 3-2 after three winless games in a row.
One significantly negative thing about Heidenheim is their awful away form. They are one of the only three teams still without an away win this season. They lost six of their seven away games, suffering five straight defeats in their most recent five.
The Betting Verdict
This will be the first match ever between these two teams in any league. Mainz has more pressure on them, while Heidenheim waits their chance as underdogs as no one expects wonders from them this season.
I rate Heidenheim higher than Mainz overall. I also believe Heidenheim will remain in the Bundesliga after this season, and Mainz will likely not.
However, Mainz will not go down without a fight, and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. This game looks winnable for them, and Mainz must win it because their final match before the winter break is against wounded Borussia Dortmund, which they will lose.
We might see a tight and nervous game, where I would go with backing Mainz to win the match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mainz 1-0 Heidenheim
