ITALIAN SERIE A BETTING PICK - MONZA V FIORENTINA

Italian Serie A

2023-12-22 - Monza vs Fiorentina

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

Monza v Fiorentina
Italy Serie A - Round 17
Stadio Brianteo, Monza, Italy
Friday, 22nd December, 20:45 CET

Monza

Monza, the perfect betting team that wins when favoured and loses when they're the underdog, lost cleanly 3-0 to AC Milan as we predicted. Now another good side comes to visit so the only thing we must detect is whether Fiorentina is a side of Monza's quality - in which case this game will end in a draw - or a top side, in which case Monza will again find a way to lose.

But before we examine Fiorentina, let's first mention that Monza lost at home only once this season, but this is also correlated with the fact that they only played one top side at home this season, Juventus. We don't really have a large sample but the game against Juventus was ugly for the hosts; the 1-2 final score is very flattering.

Fiorentina

Fiorentina is the most unreliable team in the league, very difficult to predict week after week. But let's try to make sense of their results on the road this season. They lost to Inter, Lazio and Milan, all sides that are better than them, on the road, and haven't even scored. In short, they were powerless in those matches.

But against everyone else, which includes Napoli and Roma, the Violas actually did quite well. Some would say, even better than at home, where the opponents usually play too defensively.

Fiorentina has already displayed the ability to play well on the road, to create chances and to score, so we think they will continue with that here and dominate against a side that clearly has a problem when not playing against a fellow mid-table team or a relegation candidate.

Probable Lineups

Monza (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio - Izzo, Caldirola, D'Ambrosio - P.Pereira, Gagliardini, Pessina, Ciurria - Kyriakopoulos, Colpani - Colombo. Coach Palladino.

Fiorentina (4-2-3-1): Terracciano - Kayode, Milenkovic, Ranieri, Biraghi - Arthur, Duncan - Kouame, Barak, Sottil - Beltran. Coach Italiano.

The only important absentee in both teams is Bonaventura, who won't yet play for Fiorentina after a minor injury and is likely to be back next week.

The Betting Verdict

Truth be told, the most likely outcome here is a draw. We're looking at something like 1-1. However, the bookmakers are aware Fiorentina isn't a clear-cut favourite here, which opens up an opportunity to get a good price in the Draw No Bet market.

Monza is certainly a good side, one we don't look down on, but they're having problems against sides better than them. And here is one. We think Monza's problems against top sides continue, while Fiorentina gets yet another positive away result.

Even if the game ends in a draw, we get our stake back, and we don't think Monza has got what it takes to take all three points.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

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