Italian Serie A
2024-01-06 - Inter Milan vs Hellas Verona
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 19
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Italy
Saturday, 6th January, 12:30 CET
Inter Milan
Inter is still at the top of the Serie A table, albeit by two points ahead of Juventus only, as that's the prize the Nerazzuri paid for the draw in Genova. This means Inter must not get complacent anymore otherwise they'll lose the top spot in a heartbeat.
For weeks now we've been reporting business as usual at Inter, and that is certainly the case if you look at the league form only. But if you look at all competitions, you'll find two Champions League draws and a cup exit to Bologna, and when you add the league draws against Juventus and Genoa - Inter won only 4 of the last 9 matches they played. Of the 9 before that, they won 8.
However, these results just proved what we already knew, that Inter is only a dominant force when facing a Serie A team. And here comes a Serie A opponent, a bad one too, so we can expect Inter to take care of this match easily. There's nothing that would point otherwise.
Also, four of those five non-winning games for Inter recently came when the starting forward duo was not Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram. Inter is only a dominant force when both start.
Verona
Just when we thought there's life in Verona, they lost 0-1 at home to Salernitana of all teams. The bottom dweller. This came after a 2-0 home win against Cagliari and a few results that would indicate there's still some fight in this team, such as the 3-3 in Udine and 1-1 against Lazio.
But Salernitana was flying on the pitch. Verona did nothing and deservedly lost, and unless they change something for this game, they're in for a really long Saturday afternoon.
Probable Lineups
Inter (3-5-2): Sommer - Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni - Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto - Thuram, Martinez. Coach S.Inzaghi.
Verona (4-2-3-1): Montipo - Tchatchoua, Magnani, Dawidowicz, Terracciano - Suslov, Hongla - Ngonge, Folorounsho, Lazovic - Djuric. Coach Baroni.
After some resting, expect Lautaro Martinez to pair up with Marcus Thuram again for Inter. Pavard is back from lenghty injury and could replace Bisseck.
The Betting Verdict
There's no other way to put it - Inter will thrash Verona. With Lautaro back in the starting lineup, and with Verona not even being able to hold their own against Salernitana, Inter will take the crucial three points and then watch the rest of the league action unfold.
The price on Inter to win is miniscule, 1.16, so most people will turn to the Asian Handicap market to find a bet and will wonder if Inter will win this one by one, two or more goals. The most reasonable of the handicaps offered seems to be -1.50, priced at 1.55, that says you'll win the bet if Inter wins by a two goal margin or more.
But we're getting something better if we say that Inter will win without conceding a goal, 1.72, and that's some real value right there. At home as a 1.16 favourite against a team that couldn't score if they played all day? Start your Serie A betting weekend with this bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter 3-0 Verona
