German Bundesliga
2024-02-16 - Koln vs Werder Bremen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Rhein Energie Stadion – Koln
Friday, 16th February 2024 - kickoff 20:30 CET
Koln
Koln extended their unbeaten streak to three games with last week’s 1-1 away draw against TSG Hoffenheim. They are showing improved performances lately, but feel the heat, as they are still third from the bottom. Koln is currently five points behind Union Berlin on the safe spot, which means they must carry on their streak.
The interesting thing about Koln is that they are relatively stable in the back but harmless in the attack. They only lost to Borussia Dortmund in their last five Bundesliga matches (three draws and a win), but lack of chances is concerning.
Koln’s matches across the last several months were all low-scoring games. There were under 2.5 goals scored in 11 of their last 12 Bundesliga matches.
Koln has the pressure to win this game because their following two games are extremely difficult – away against third Vfb Stuttgart and home against the unbeaten Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Every point in their relegation battle matters, and they need three from this home game.
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen’s unbeaten run of seven games ended last week when they lost 1-2 at home to Heidenheim. They were outplayed and deservedly lost but are comfortable in the 10th spot, ten points above Koln.
Werder Bremen will surely avoid the relegation battle this season. They are not good enough to get close to European spots but will likely linger between 9-12 positions. That eliminates pressure from them, which is positive for the team.
So far, Werder Bremen has won only twice on the road in 10 away matches, but both came in their last two trips against Bayern Munich (0-1) and Mainz (0-1).
Werder Bremen’s central defender, Niklas Stark, injured his hip and will be out of the team for some time. He is one of the better defenders in the team, playing in 13 games and even scoring twice. He was statistically one of the best tacklers, so the team will sorely feel his absence.
The Betting Verdict
Koln has a fantastic home record against Werder Bremen, remaining unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 duels. Amazingly, Koln recorded their biggest-ever Bundesliga win at home with the 7-1 win over Werder Bremen in their most recent game played in Koln in January 2023.
The pressure and motivation are heavy on Koln’s side, who must win before facing two top-four teams in the next two weeks. Werder Bremen is comfortable, and they will play their usual game without pressure.
Considering everything, I would back Koln to win this match at valuable odds.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Koln 1-0 Werder Bremen
