Italian Serie A
2024-03-16 - Salernitana vs Lecce
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 29
Stadio Arechi, Salerno, Italy
Saturday, 16th March 2024, 18:00 CET
Salernitana
Not all is lost for Salernitana, at least not mathematically, as there are ten rounds to go and they're 11 points behind safety.
However, if we assume that the other relegation candidates will keep racking up points at a rough pace of 1 point per round as they have done so far this season, then Salernitana needs to win at least 21 points in 10 rounds to reach safety.
Highly unlikely, to say the least.
Salernitana had a few chances to save themselves in recent weeks, as the schedule brought them a home game against Empoli and a visiting game at Cagliari, but they have lost both with a handicap. This team will be in Serie B next season.
Lecce
Incredibly, Lecce are still living off the 11 points they've won in the opening five rounds of the season.
Lecce won twice in the next 23 rounds and would have been in the relegation zone, and have actually not outperformed anyone if we'd look at the results since round six.
The points say they aren't in the relegation zone, but their form says they are no better than any other relegation candidate - probably not even Salernitana.
Probable Lineups
Salernitana (4-3-2-1): Ochoa - Zanoli, Manolas, Pirola, Bradaric - Maggiore, Basic, Coulibaly - Candreva - Tchaouna, Weissman. Coach Liverani.
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Gendrey, Pongracic, Baschirotto, Gallo - Rafia, Ramadani, Blin - Almqvist, Krstovic, Sansone. Coach D'Aversa.
Kastanos and Banda are suspended for Salernitana and Lecce respectively, and those are the only changes in lineups.
The Betting Verdict
Rare are the occasions when Salernitana doesn't manage to score in a home game. It just happened against Monza in the previous home game, on a 0.86 xG and three shots on target, against Napoli, Inter and Torino. Even more rare are the occasions when Salernitana keeps a clean sheet at home. It hasn't happened yet in 14 home games.
Lecce, on the other hand, is a walking 1-1 result, as they too always concede and usually manage to score, at least whenever they're not facing a top side. On the road, they managed to find the net whenever they faced a team of similar quality. Here they will certainly want to, as they see this game as a chance to get a three-pointer that would all but guarantee Serie A next season.
So, in this probably low-scoring game, we'll bet that both teams will continue their respective trends and we'll be rewarded with a nice price of 1.90. This is a good value bet in what initially seems like a game you have nothing to bet on.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Salernitana 1-1 Lecce
