Italian Serie A
2024-04-13 - Lecce vs Empoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 32
Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del mare, Lecce, Italy
Saturday, 13th April 2024, 15:00 CET
Lecce
In last eight matches, since early February, Lecce hasn't scored a goal that wasn't an own goal by the opponent. There were two such own goals, and one of them gave Lecce an important win at Salernitana.
Lecce is therefore still, very surprisingly, above the relegation zone, four spots and three points above the first below the line which is Frosinone.
This side has been struggling with scoring for a very long time now, and Lecce is also a known specialist for draws. But since they can't even score once lately, 1-1 draws became 0-1 defeats.
Empoli
Empoli seems to have hit a bad patch but this is because of the schedule. They played Milan, Bologna and Inter one after another and of course they lost all three games.
Then they got Torino and immediately won. If we cherry pick eight of the last eleven games Lecce played - and remove the three defeats to big teams - then Lecce has a record of 4-3-1. That's hardly a relegation candidate.
Even if Empoli is below Lecce at the moment, which is blasphemy, this is a better side and the only one of the relegation candidates that is showing signs of life. The others, despite their do or die situations, seem clinically dead.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Gendrey, Pongracic, Baschirotto, Gallo - Blin, Ramadani, Rafia - Almqvist, Piccoli, Dorgu. Coach Gotti.
Empoli (3-4-2-1): Caprile - Bereszynski, Walukiewicz, Luperto - Gyasi, Marin, Bastoni, Pezzella - Cambiaghi, Zurkowski - Cerri. Coach Nicola.
For Lecce, the best forward Krstovic is suspended. Empoli will likely switch to a three-man defence for this game.
The Betting Verdict
We suspect this will be a low-scoring game, as Lecce and Empoli usually play such games when they meet, and pretty much everyone is aware that goals will be at a premium here so one goal might decide the game. And that's when both teams tighten up even more.
However, despite the high likelihood of Under 2.5 Goals for 1.57, you never know with late goals in this league so we'll leave it alone.
A much better bet arises from the fact that the bookmakers say Lecce is the favourite, whereas Empoli is the better side. In the worst-case scenario, it will be a 1-1 draw, but Empoli should win this.
Take the double chance for a very good price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lecce 0-1 Empoli
