German Bundesliga
2024-05-11 - Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Mewa Arena – Mainz
Saturday, 11th May 2024 - kickoff 18:30 CET
Mainz
Mainz is third from the bottom on the table, seeking points in their final two games against Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg. They are a point behind safety, so even two wins might not be enough for them unless some of their bottom rivals slip. And I doubt Mainz will record two wins in their final two games.
However, there is no denying that Mainz is in solid form. Last week, they played their seventh consecutive unbeaten match, drawing 1-1 against Heidenheim. That was also their third straight drawn match.
Mainz has been the draw specialist this season, with 14 of their 32 games ending in draws. They won only five times, which is why they are about to drop out of the Bundesliga. Interestingly, all five of their wins came in their home stadium.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund’s season is closing in one of the best ways possible. They reached the UEFA Champions League Final by beating PSG twice, so their mood is excellent. Last week, they also hammered Augsburg 5-1 in the Bundesliga, so their confidence and form are almost perfect.
Borussia Dortmund is guaranteed their UEFA Champions League spot for next season, so their final two games against weak Mainz and SV Darmstadt 98 are only a formality. However, they are likely to finish strong and go for a win in both games.
Borussia Dortmund is unbeaten in six straight Bundesliga duels against Mainz, having beaten them four times. Also, Borussia Dortmund has won in all of its last six trips to Mainz with a goal difference of 14:3!
The Betting Verdict
Do you remember what happened on the last Bundesliga matchday last season? Let me remind you. Mainz directly denied Borussia Dortmund the German Bundesliga title in the last round of the season at the end of May. They denied them a home win in a match that was not of any importance for the safe mid-table team Mainz, so Bayern Munich won the title on goal difference. I remember seeing the scenes of thousands of people crying in Dortmund stadium and players lying on the pitch in shock and disbelief at what happened.
Now it’s payback time, and everything fits perfectly well. Now Borussia Dortmund has an “unimportant” game while Mainz is fighting for their bare Bundesliga survival. The Yellow-Blacks do not forget, and I am sure they will push as strong as possible to hammer Mainz and send them to the 2.Bundesliga.
I must admit I am shocked by the odds for this game. Odds of 3.00 for Borussia Dortmund to win?! At Mainz?! I am all-in on Borussia Dortmund in this game and recommend taking those juicy odds for an away win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mainz 0-2 Borussia Dortmund
