Italian Serie A
2024-05-11 - AC Milan vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 35
San Siro Stadium, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 5th May, 18:00 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Match Preview
Milan, seemingly already wearing the flip flops, hosts relegation-threatened Cagliari that just lost two important points against Lecce that would have almost guaranteed safety. Milan, meanwhile, conceded 3 goals from 2 shots on target at home against Genoa.
AC Milan Team News
We have now entered the final weeks of the Serie A season and some teams are already in vacation mode. Some would say Milan's defence has been on vacation for months now, especially on travels where they've conceded as many goals as some relegation candidates, and it didn't look any better at home against Genoa with a dreadful penalty kick and an own goal gifting Genoa two scores.
Milan has nothing to play for and it shows. They're now on a run of six games without a win, which includes the two defeats to Roma in the Europa League, and it's so obvious that the Rossoneri just want this season to end.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari had Lecce on the ropes in a relegation six-pointer in Sardinia, but a foolish red card left the team in defensive mode for more than 50 minutes, and Lecce managed to equalize near the end. Cagliari is still safe, but barely, having a point more than Frosinone and Empoli who are above the line, and three points more than Udinese that is the first team below the line. It could all change in one day.
This is no easy task for Cagliari but they will undoubtedly come to Milano to play football, to score, and to shock Italy and the sports betting world like they did with their 2-2 draw against Milan three weeks ago.
Cagliari also visited this same stadium in January for the Coppa Italia match against AC Milan which they've lost 4-1. Their goal was a consolation one near the end.
Probable Lineups
Milan (4-3-3): Sportiello - Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Hernandez - Musah, Bennacer, Reijnders - Leao, Giroud, Pulisic. Coach Pioli.
Cagliari (4-2-3-1): Scuffet - Zappa, Mina, Dossena, Obert - Deiola, Sulemana - Nandez, Oristanio, Luvumbo - Shomorudov. Coach Ranieri.
Milan will likely field the strongest lineup, in an offensive formation too, in an attempt to finally win a game. Cagliari will be without the suspended Gaetano and Augello. Makombou is doubtful.
The Betting Market
Milan is, of course, the favourite, despite it being obvious that they are no longer eager to play, for the simple fact that Cagliari is an awful visitor. They got one win, and even that one came now during the relegation struggle when they visited Empoli.
The price on Milan is 1.44 and that's more or less fair. Sounds about right, possibly even has some value in it. Over 2.5 Goals is the favoured option at 1.57 as the bookmakers expect an open game, regardless whether Cagliari will take part in scoring or not.
The Betting Verdict
Cagliari on the road is a team that always seems to follow the same recipe. More often than not, Cagliari would concede first, and would then break out of the shell and start playing. This inevitably results with more goals.
Milan looked good in offense against Genoa and could have scored more, and we suspect they might get two or three here. Cagliari might chip in with a goal, but even Milan is capable of scoring three all on their own. Over 2.5 it is.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Milan 3-1 Cagliari
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.5 Goals at 1.57 at Bet365
