English Premier
2024-05-19 - Burnley vs Nottingham Forest
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Sunday 19th May 2024 - Kick Off 4pm
Burnley
They took the lead in North London and for seven minutes fans would have been dreaming about going into the final day of the season with Burnley having a chance of scrambling out of the bottom three. It was not to be for Vincent Kompany's team and they have suffered an immediate relegation back to the Championship after the 2-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur.
This has been a tough campaign from the start for Burnley and they have simply not been able to produce enough wins with just 5 in the Premier League all season. The side could potentially finish in 18th place if they can win on Sunday, but Burnley bring in a 2-4-12 record at Turf Moor and that was never going to cut it when it comes to avoiding the drop.
Burnley had been on a run of a single loss in 8 Premier League games and they had picked up 11 points from a possible 24 available, but consecutive losses to Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur ended their late resistance. The side had been unbeaten in 3 home Premier League fixtures before the thumping loss to The Magpies.
Luca Koleosho looks set to miss out on the final weekend.
Nottingham Forest
A dramatic game at the City Ground saw Nottingham Forest blow a 2-1 lead over Chelsea very late on, although the Luton Town defeat earlier in the day has all but kept Nuno Espirito Santo's team in the top flight. Two remarkable results will be needed if Nottingham Forest are yet to finish in the bottom three, but the team can make sure there is no drama by avoiding a loss on the final day.
The Four Point Penalty for financial breaches means Nottingham Forest are 17th in the Premier League table and 3 points clear of Luton Town in the bottom three, although they do have a 12 goal advantage in the goal difference column. The Tricky Trees finish off their away schedule having produced a 3-4-11 record on their travels.
Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 6 Premier League games, but that was the important 1-3 win at Sheffield United and Luton Town have not been able to keep the pressure on them. They had lost 4 of 5 away Premier League games before the win at Bramall Lane, although the exception was an important 1-1 draw at Luton Town.
Neco Williams is the only doubt in the away squad.
Head to Head
Nottingham Forest have hosted Burnley twice this season, although both times when managed by Steve Cooper.
The League Cup tie ended 0-1 in favour of Burnley, while the Premier League game finished 1-1 at the City Ground.
Burnley have won 3 home games in a row against Nottingham Forest, but have not hosted this opponent since February 2016.
Prediction
In all likelihood, Luton Town's defeat at the London Stadium has kept Nottingham Forest in the Premier League and it would take something genuinely shocking for that to change.
A 3 point lead over The Hatters and a plus 12 goal difference mark means only a very heavy Nottingham Forest defeat at Turf Moor coupled with a massive Luton Town win will see those teams switch positions at 6pm on Sunday afternoon.
Simply put, it's not going to happen.
Nuno Espirito Santo's team have actually played pretty well down the stretch, even if their form guide does not indicate as much. They were leading Chelsea last Saturday until conceding twice in three minutes, while Nottingham Forest gave Manchester City a real scare in a home loss to the Champions elect.
The sole win in recent matches came at relegated Sheffield United as Nottingham Forest took advantage of the home defensive vulnerabilities and something similar may occur here.
With relegation confirmed, Burnley might be able to play with a bit more freedom, but they have made mistakes at the back time after time this season. Vincent Kompany will be frustrated by those, and it is too late to change the mindset of the players now, so there is a feeling that Burnley will cause problems of their own making.
The expectation is that Burnley will create chances too and it could be a high-scoring game at Turf Moor, especially in good footballing conditions expected on Sunday.
While the feeling is that Burnley will score, Nottingham Forest have shown they have attacking players that can make the difference. Those qualities can see them produce a solid victory at Turf Moor on Sunday and The Tricky Trees may be a big price to eventually wear down the relegated hosts and secure Premier League status without any additional dramas.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Burnley 1-3 Nottingham Forest
