Italian Serie A
2024-05-24 - Genoa vs Bologna
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 38
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Saturday, 24th May, 20:45 CET
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Genoa Team News
Genoa is the epitome of a mid-table team - they have almost the same number of wins, draws and defeats, and a goal difference of -2. They're the 10th-best home team, 13th-best away team, 11th overall. The exact average of everything.
That's a huge success as people forget this side just made it to this league from Serie B last season, and this veteran team looks like it's very comfortable in top flight. They fared quite well against big teams, not great but not bad either, they barely ever lose with a handicap. This is a solid side that does not disappoint - largely because of their class forwards that could play in top European sides: Retegui and Gudmundsson.
Bologna Team News
We'll see how will Thiago Motta fare in Juventus next season, and if Dusan Vlahovic will be as willing as Joshua Zirkzee to run a lot and create the extra man in midfield with his positioning. What worked in Bologna won't necessarily work with the players that Juventus has.
We can also expect serious degradation of Bologna next season when Motta and his football-changing tactics are gone. But he's still here now, and Bologna need this win to fend off Juventus and Atalanta in their battle to retain the 3rd spot. They can finish 3rd, 4th or 5th.
Probable Lineups
Genoa (3-5-2): Martinez - Vogliacco, De Winter, Vazquez - Sabelli, Thorsby, Badelj, Frendrup, Martin - Retegui, Gudmundsson. Coach Gillardino.
Bologna (4-1-4-1): Skorupski - Posch, Beukema, Lucumi - Freuler - Orsolini, Aebischer, Fabbian, Saelemaekers - Zirkzee. Coach Motta.
The usual lineup for both sides, with one change each in the defensive line. Bologna has been without their main offensive midfielder Ferguson for a while but this hasn't showed in results.
The Betting Market
Bologna is the favourite but not a big one, as the price is around 2.15, which means the bookmakers don't really see this as a game between a top Italian side and a mediocre one, but a more balanced encounter.
This isn't unique to Bologna, however. Lazio had a price of 2.43 when they won here 0-1 a few weeks ago, Atalanta had 2.01 when they won 1-4. Meaning, there's value in betting against Genoa when they host a top opponent. They posted a 1-3-4 record in such matches this season, the sole win coming in that famous game against Roma early in the season.
Under 2.5 Goals is the more likely option, at 1.66, and we agree. That's a decent bet right there.
The Betting Verdict
There's just no way to prevent conceding against Bologna, as this side is all about creating that one free player and then passing him the ball. This is why they're doing so well and why they're on such a long winning streak. They don't rely on fancy dribbles, they rely on positioning, and it works week after week.
Bologna will likely win here, and the price on them at Bet365 is 2.21. We'll respect Genoa's record against big teams that says they draw often, however, and place a bet on the Draw No Bet market for 1.55 instead.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 0-1 Bologna
