Euro 2024

2024-07-10 - Netherlands vs England

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Netherlands v England
Football: UEFA Euro 2024 Semi Final
Wednesday 10th July 2024 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV

Netherlands

At the start of Euro 2024, there would have been some uncertainty about this Netherlands team, especially as they lost Frenkie de Jong on the eve of the Finals. Credit has to be given to Ronald Koeman for some of the changes and tactical decisions he has been willing to make after the struggle out of the Group Stage and Netherlands fans will be dreaming of repeating their success on German grounds having last won a major international tournament in West Germany in 1988.

They effectively Qualified for the Last 16 after two games were played in the Group Stage, but Netherlands failed to impress in the goalless draw with France and the final Group game defeat to Austria. It certainly had some feeling Netherlands were vulnerable against Romania and Turkey in the Knock Out Rounds, but Koeman has gotten the most out of his squad and they have impressed.

Netherlands have won 5 of their last 7 games overall and that includes winning 3 of 5 Euro 2024 Finals matches. In a tournament which has lacked some attacking spark, this squad can at least point out that they have managed to score at least twice in 4 of the 5 games played this summer.

Ronald Koeman has not been afraid to make big decisions when it comes to team selection. Changes are expected with Steven Bergwijn likely to come out of the starting eleven having been replaced at half time against Turkey. Wout Weghorst continues to be an effective sub though so it may be Donyell Malen who is given the opportunity to start.

England

For the second Knock Out tie in a row, it felt Gareth Southgate was leaving his substitution decisions until it was too late. Once again England trailed against an opponent they would have expected to beat, but this team is resilient and have found a way to make it through to the Euro 2024 Semi Final.

No one can say they have been impressed by England in their wins over Slovakia and Switzerland and there is a real feeling that big improvements need to be made. It has taken an astonishing finish with seconds left and a Penalty Shoot Out success to keep England in the tournament and this Semi Final is expected to be a huge test.

England have now won 2 of their last 10 games in normal time with the last 4 at this tournament all ending in draws after ninety minutes have been played. A lack of goals continue to hurt the team, despite the attacking talent available to the manager, but England have shown enough defensively to believe they can win a major international tournament for the first time since 1966.

Marc Guehi is back from a suspension, while Luke Shaw may be ready to offer balance at left back having come on as a sub against Switzerland. Harry Kane is expected to overcome a knock, while Gareth Southgate has refused to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven and is unlikely to make too many surprising decisions in this one.

Head to Head

England and Netherlands last met in the 2019 Nations League Semi Final and it was the Dutch who came from behind to earn a 1-1 draw in ninety minutes and then push on to win 1-3 in Extra Time.

That result means Netherlands have won 3 of the last 4 matches played against England and been beaten just once in 9 games since the famous 4-1 win the English produced at Euro 1996.

Prediction

The bottom half of the Knock Out Bracket looked weaker than the top, but this Semi Final is perhaps the best we could have gotten.

That might not sound right to many considering an England team that has failed to impress have made it through to the final four. However, there is little doubting the talent of the squad and England have shown resiliency and character to find a way past Slovakia and Switzerland.

They have had a pretty large sprinkling of luck too and Gareth Southgate can thank his players for keeping the wolves from the door.

England will need to be better, but we are so deep into the tournament that is difficult to imagine that too many changes to the approach or th level of performance will be much different from what we have seen. Luke Shaw offering more minutes at left back will help the balance, but England have needed special moments to breakthrough the defences rather than any real tactical plan.

During the Group Stage there were vulnerabilities in this Netherlands defence, but they have looked a little more composed in the last couple of games. Ronald Koeman will have firm belief in his attacking players having seen them score five goals in the Knock Out Rounds, which is only bettered by Spain out of the remaining teams.

Netherlands will give England something to think about and the manager has been much more proactive than his counterpart. It has seen Ronald Koeman quickly make changes if he feels it will improve his Netherlands team and that decisiveness may give the Dutch the edge in this Semi Final.

They have not always convinced, but Netherlands have been strong in both boxes and that can be crucial in these tight matches.

Set pieces will be key, but Netherlands look a big price in this Semi Final considering what we have seen from the two nations at Euro 2024. The Dutch have won 3 of the last 4 matches played against England and that will give them confidence, as will the familiarity of many of the players with the English.

Many England fans will want revenge over Ronald Koeman, who has not been forgiven on those shores after his impact on a failed World Cup Qualifying campaign back in 1993.

However, Netherlands fans will point out the embarrassment of losing as they did to England in the Euro 1996 Group Stage and those fans do feel there is a bit of destiny about this run in Germany in 2024. This is the last country in which Netherlands have won a major international tournament and the momentum looks to be with the underdog who can avoid a defeat in ninety minutes at the very least.