Rugby League
2024-08-03 - Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
A Sports Betting Pick by Stu
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Saturday 3rd August 2024 - KO 1935 AEST
Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla are 4th before the start of round 22 on 28 points, 2 points clear of the Bulldogs and Cowboys 4 points clear of 4 other teams who all could theoretically make a top 4 spot with no losses from here. The Sharks are 11-7 through the whole season but worryingly, 4-6 in their past 10 matches, winning just one of their past 5, hence the danger of slipping down the ladder.
Cronulla are right on the edge of falling out of contention, despite the current 4th place. Their form has dropped off a cliff and this match will be telling, losing here at home and the chance of a top 4 spot is probably gone.
The Sharks fell to North Queensland away from home in the last round, in what was a fairly poor display at the end of the first half, Cronulla trailed 18-10 and could have been worse. The second half started a touch brighter closing the gap with a converted try to 2 points but the Cowboys found another gear, running away in the second half, the Sharks scoring right at the death to improve the scoreline, 30-22.
Cronulla Sharks Team News - A number of changes, Will Kennedy, Sam Stonestreet and Royce Hunt return to the starting line up and Jack Williams returns via the bench.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Souths will need a miracle to make the top 8 from their current 15th place off a 7-11 record and essentially need to win all remaining 6 matches from here if they are to be part of the post season.
The Rabbits did go on a run 5 straight victories during the origin period off the back of Latrell Mitchell hitting some form, but since that run, they are 1-2, losses to the Dolphins and Raiders with a less than convincing win over the last placed Tigers, another level needs to be found and it just doesn’t look likely.
Canberra were never threatened in their win over the visiting Rabbitohs, Souths scoring just the one try to 4 in the first half to trail 24-6 at HT. The second half was much less exciting just 1 try a piece for a final score 32-12 and more or less resigned Souths to no post season football.
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News - Cameron Murray returns from suspension, Fletcher Myers will debut on the wing Richie Kennar in the centres and Tallis Duncan is the new face on the bench.
Odds
Storm start favourites due to their amazing home record, $1.31 to $3.50, the line 10.5 points and total points is 49.5
The Betting Verdict
This match will be the 40th meeting of the clubs and Cronulla lead the H2H, 21-18. These clubs have met once already this season in round 6, Cronulla winning that one 22-34 which makes it 2 in a row, Cronulla also winning late 2023 by 10 points. The ground stats are in favour of the home team too, Cronulla win 58% at home with the visiting Rabbitohs only 6 victories from 20 attempts.
Souths need to win every match from this point forward and as mentioned above this does not appear likely, with matches against Melbourne, Penrith and Sydney in their remaining 6 to finish the season. That said, Cronulla are well below their early season form so an upset is possible here.
Cronulla are still well in contention for the title based on table position but without Hynes who was excellent for his team for the first part of season 24, the Sharks look like top 8 prospects and probable first week casualties as it stands.
Looking back through the last 17 matches played between these teams, most matches hit the 40+ point mark combined, but only 3 have reached 50. The points combined is set at 49.5 here and the Sharks defence tells me this 50 point threshold will be a hard target to reach, so rather than selecting a winning team here which should go to the Sharks but I do have some doubts, combined points, unders make sense as the preferred option here.
The Pick :
Cronulla Sharks 22-16 South Sydney
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the total combined points under 49.5 points returning $1.91 with Bet365
