Italian Serie A
2024-08-24 - Monza vs Genoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 2
Stadio Brianteo, Monza, Italy (16,917)
Saturday, 24th August 2024, 20:45 CET
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Monza Team News
Monza played a boring 0-0 draw at Empoli, only firing four shots towards the goal, with one on target. This was an awful football game for sure, but we suspected as much and won the Under 2.5 Goals bet. It remains to be seen how will Monza look like when they don't play against a side that accepts such a slow and uneventful game.
Monza will likely still be toothless for the most part, especially now when they lost their coach Palladino and their main offensive midfielder Colpani. Their new coach is D'Aversa of Lecce fame, meaning, every game could end 1-1 and the team will be struggling to score.
Genoa Team News
Genoa is a well-coached side of experienced players, and at times, it creates a perfect storm where you can play 2-2 at home against the mighty Inter that's racing to defend the scudetto. Their goals may seem accidental but all this is happening because the foundation of this team is good. Expect Genoa to be punching above its weight class in this season, just like they did in the last one.
This doesn't guarantee points against mid-table teams and against relegation candidates, of course, but Genoa is bad news for all those sides simply because they're playing better football, with slightly better players.
Probable Lineups
Monza (3-4-2-1): Pizzignacco - Izzo, P.Mari, Caldirola - Birindelli, Pessina, Bondo, Kyriakopoulos - Maldini, S.Vignato - Petagna. Coach Nesta.
Genoa (3-5-2): Gollini - Vogliacco, Bani, De Winter - Zanoli, Frendrup, Badelj, Malinovskyi, Martin - Vitinha, Messias. Coach Gillardino.
Coach Nesta returns from suspension.
The Betting Market
It's always difficult to point your finger on a bet when two mid-table teams meet, especially if it's one of those games that you "know" will end 1-1 but you don't want to bet on the draw flat out.
However, one thing we got going for us in this type of matches is the bookmaker confusion - they regularly make all bets worth the same price. Monza 2.67, Genoa 2.96. If you have at least some sort of a hint that makes you lean one way or the other, you can make money.
The Betting Verdict
This will be a slow, slow game in which Genoa will be the better side but will find it difficult to break through. However, we believe they eventually will.
Interestingly, last season Genoa lost 1-0 both at Monza and at Lecce, so both this side and its coach got a win-to-nil against Genoa. This right here would be our reason to stay away from the winner market, as we can't be confident about Genoa winning here.
We'll keep riding the hot hand which is Monza, or should we say, the cold hand. This team is incapable of scoring and the only thing they can resort to is quality defending.
This will be a slow game with goals at a premium. We believe the price on Under 2.5 Goals should be 1.57 or so, and it's 1.66. Value.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Monza 1-1 Genoa
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Under 2.5 Goals at 1.66 with Bet365
