UEFA Nations
2024-11-17 - England vs Republic of Ireland
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Nations League
Sunday 17th November 2024 - Kick Off 5pm
This game is live on TV
England
A host of withdrawals and then a number of surprising exclusions in the starting lineup saw England drift to odds against to win in Greece on Match Day 5 of the Nations League. Not only did England upset those odds, but Lee Carsley's team won by such a margin that one more victory against a rival will see the nation restored to League A of this competition without the hassle of winning a Promotion/Relegation Play Off tie.
There is still some work to do having lost at home to Greece, but the permutation is pretty clear for England with a victory securing top spot in this Group. Matching Greece's result in Finland would do the same, but the focus for Carsley in his last game as interim manager of the national team is to win this fixture and go out on a high before, hopefully, returning to the Under-21 team.
England have won 5 of their last 7 games in all competitions with the exceptions both being 2-1 defeats, although the level of opponent always looked pretty weak in League B of the Nations League. There has still been a pressure to perform, while the 1-2 home loss to Greece means England have lost 2 of their last 3 when hosting.
Lee Carsley could easily choose to go with the same starting eleven that won in Greece on Thursday, although players like Dean Henderson, Lewis Hall, Morgan Rogers and Harry Kane could be used to freshen up the team.
Republic of Ireland
Completing the double over Finland on Match Day 5 has ensured that Republic of Ireland will be finishing third in this Group and facing a Promotion/Relegation Play Off in March as they look to avoid dropping into League C. The likes of England and Greece have had too much for an Irish team in transition and who will be hoping for a kind draw in the World Cup Qualifying campaign.
In reality, Republic of Ireland have to be targeting a place at Euro 2028 rather than the World Cup Finals in 2026 on their current path. The manager, Heimir Hallgrimsson, is going to need time and Ireland have found the two stronger teams in this section a little too good with 6 points separating them and England and Greece.
Republic of Ireland have lost 4 of their last 6 games and have failed to score in each of those defeats, but during that run they have beaten Finland at home and away in this Nations League Group. The side were seen off in Greece without troubling the scoreboard and were also narrowly beaten in France and Netherlands in the Euro 2024 Qualifying Group.
Head to Head
These teams met on Match Day 1 of the Nations League and England were comfortable 0-2 winners in Dublin.
The last time England hosted Ireland was in November 2020 and that friendly ended in a 3-0 victory for the hosts.
Prediction
Despite the changes and the absence of some of the key players that have not joined the squad, England showed the depth that the country has with their big 0-3 win at Greece on Match Day 5.
Thomas Tuchel will have plenty of options to use during the 2026 World Cup Qualifying Group and he will have big decisions to make in a little over eighteen months time when he announces the squad that will head to North America (assuming England will Qualify).
Another win over Republic of Ireland will secure top spot in this Group and that looks the most likely outcome of this fixture to be played on Sunday afternoon.
England still retain enough quality to break down Ireland, while the visiting team have simply not been productive enough in the final third when it comes to matches against the stronger nations.
Over the last eighteen months, Ireland have been beaten in matches by France (twice), Netherlands (twice), Greece (three times) and England and they have managed just two goals in that time. In 4 away matches against those opponents in that time frame, Republic of Ireland have managed a single goal and it is going to be tough for them to find a lot more joy in this one, even with the absences in the home squad.
Lee Carsley began his interim run with a victory in Dublin with a clean sheet and he can end it with another England win on the back of another clean sheet. It looks a slightly more appealing price than backing England to win by two or more goals, which is also a likely outcome, and the Thomas Tuchel era can begin off the back of a successful Nations League campaign.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
England 2-0 Republic of Ireland
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back England Win to Nil at 1.80 with Bet365
