Tennis
2025-08-15 - Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Cincinnati Quarter Final
Friday 15th August 2025 - Scheduled 3pm
8pm (British Time)
Preview
The conditions in Cincinnati have been particularly tough this year and that has perhaps contributed to what was a slow start to the event for Carlos Alcaraz. The World Number 2 feels much better about his game following the Fourth Round win over Luca Nardi and Carlos Alcaraz described that as his best performance of the tournament so far.
Nothing is wrong with the strong numbers that Carlos Alcaraz has built up on the hard courts and he skipped Toronto in a bid to be ready for this Masters event and then the US Open, which is now fast approaching.
However, the numbers should have led to more titles and the Spaniard has suffered some disappointing defeats in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami and he will enter the US Open as a significant second favourite compared with Jannik Sinner.
Winning the title in Cincinnati could change some of the narrative and Alcaraz will be very happy with his level considering he has not been in competitive action since the Wimbledon Final.
He beat Andrey Rublev on his way to another Final in SW19 and it is the World Number 11 who stands in his way here.
Andrey Rublev has to be happy with the wins he has produced at this tournament, but this is going to be a significant test for a player who has just slipped from the standards he has set in his career. The numbers remain pretty impressive, but Rublev has struggled for consistency when it comes to facing those players that are Ranked higher than himself.
He has served well enough in those matches on the hard courts, but over the last twelve months, Andrey Rublev has really had problems getting into the return games, and that has also been the case in consecutive losses to Carlos Alcaraz. Being able to serve well enough to contain the top players on the Tour, while failing to have an impact the other way, puts Rublev under too much pressure and ultimately that has shown up on the scoreboard.
Last week it was Taylor Fritz who was getting the better of Andrey Rublev and there is every chance that Carlos Alcaraz not only wins this match, but covers the line set.
Andrey Rublev does hold a surprising win over Carlos Alcaraz on the clay courts, but the three non-clay matches have all ended in defeat and the World Number 2 would have covered this line set in all of those victories. The higher Ranked player did have one or two issues against the Rublev serve at Wimbledon, but still created 11 Break Points across the four sets played and Carlos Alcaraz should have control of the scoreboard in this Quarter Final.
Prediction
Lay the games with the higher Ranked player.
The Pick :
Andrey Rublev 0-2 Carlos Alcaraz
