Champions League
2025-03-05 - Benfica vs Barcelona
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 First Leg
Wednesday 5th March 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Benfica
Despite losing manager Ruben Amorim to Manchester United, Benfica's rivals Sporting Lisbon are narrowly holding onto the lead in the Portuguese top flight. However, the momentum looks to be with Benfica and they will certainly believe they can win a second domestic title in three years, while already progressing further than Sporting in the Champions League.
Both teams were involved in the Champions League Play Off Round last month, but it was Benfica who progressed through to the Last 16 thanks to a 4-3 aggregate win over Monaco. The level steps up again with Benfica facing one of the top two Seeds, but they have only been beaten in 1 of their last 6 Champions League games and have won half of those fixtures.
Benfica are unbeaten in 8 games in all competitions and the 1-0 win over Sporting Braga last week has made it 7 wins in that run, while also having a week to prepare for this Champions League Last 16 First Leg. The side have won 3 of their last 4 home games since the memorable 4-5 defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League Group Stage in January.
Florentino is a doubt for the home team, as is veteran Angel Di Maria.
Barcelona
With the likes of Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Liverpool on the other side of the Knock Out Bracket, Barcelona fans will be thinking about ending the decade long wait to play in another Champions League Final. The team are also battling with both Madrid clubs for the Spanish title and so there is a challenge for Hansi Flick to find the right balance to ensure a successful season at the helm of this famous club.
After opening the new Champions League Group format with a defeat, Barcelona finished up unbeaten in 7 and only the 2-2 draw with Atlanta on Match Day 8 meant finishing behind Liverpool in the standings. Ultimately that has not mattered with where Barcelona have landed in the Knock Out Bracket and they will be chasing a fourth away win in a row in this competition.
Barcelona are unbeaten in 15 games in all competitions since losing to Atletico Madrid just before Christmas, while they have won 12 of those fixtures played. They are also unbeaten in 10 away games in all competitions and Barcelona have scored at least twice in winning 4 straight on their travels.
The squad are missing some long-term injured players, but Hansi Flick has to be happy with the health of his team with a couple of weeks to go until the March international break.
Head to Head
It was a remarkable game in Lisbon when Benfica hosted Barcelona on Match Day 7 of the new Champions League Group Stage in January.
Benfica led 1-0, 3-1 and 4-2, but conceded three times in the final 12 minutes to lose the game 4-5.
This is the eleventh competitive fixture between these famous clubs and it is Barcelona who hold the edge.
They have won 2 of their last 3 visits to the Stadium of Light, although the middle of those fixtures was won 3-0 by the home team in the 2021/22 Champions League Group Stage.
Prediction
Neutral fans will be tuning into this Champions League Last 16 First Leg tie hoping that Benfica and Barcelona pick up from where they left off in January.
Nine goals were shared out that day and there was plenty of controversy attached to Barcelona's come from behind 4-5 win at the Stadium of Light.
Both Benfica and the visiting team created a host of chances on the day and you have to believe that Benfica will be thinking that their best chance of progressing to the Champions League Quarter Final is by having a lead to protect next week in Spain.
The home team will push forward and look to score goals, which has not proved to be much of a problem for Benfica in the Champions League, and they will certainly believe they can cause problems for this Barcelona team that have conceded at least twice in 5 straight away Champions League games, including all 4 played this season.
However, the problem for Benfica is containing a vibrant Barcelona attack that have scored goals for fun all campaign under Hansi Flick.
Barcelona were reduced to ten men after just 10 minutes in a 2-1 loss at Monaco, but they have scored 13 goals in 3 away Champions League games against Crvena Zvezda, Borussia Dortmund and Benfica with at least three scored in each game. The manager will want his team to get forward and test this Benfica defence that conceded three against Monaco in the Play Off tie last month and backing goals looks to be the play.
You have to give Barcelona the edge, but Benfica did enough in their meeting in January to have confidence to avoid a defeat. The away win is priced at odds on, but backing at least four goals to be shared out is an odds against price and the intent of both teams will be to get forward and attack vulnerable defences, which should lead to plenty of chances being created in this First Leg.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Benfica 2-3 Barcelona
