Champions League
2025-03-11 - Barcelona vs Benfica
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 Second Leg
Tuesday 11th March 2025 - Kick Off 5:45pm
This game is live on TV
Barcelona
Riding out some rough moments with ten men has given Barcelona a real advantage in this Champions League Last 16 tie, but there will have been a sombre feeling around the squad in the lead up to the Second Leg. The sudden passing of a team doctor saw the League game against Osasuna postponed just minutes before kick off on Saturday and the squad will have had to rally together to help each other with the grieving process.
As the 'number two Seed', Barcelona have benefited from the Champions League Knock Out draw and have to be considered big favourites to reach the Semi Final. The 0-1 win in Lisbon has given Barcelona the edge, but there is still work to do, even if the home team will be confident having won 3 of 4 Champions League games here this season.
Barcelona are unbeaten in 16 games in all competitions and they have won 6 of their last 7 fixtures played, although there is a big week coming up for a squad that may be struggling with their emotions. The fans will certainly help the team and Barcelona have won 3 of their last 4 games when hosting as they await their return to the Camp Nou.
Pau Cubarsi was sent off in Lisbon and is going to serve a suspension. Andreas Christensen is out with an injury, but Gavi should have overcome an illness that saw him miss the First Leg.
Benfica
There will be a feeling of missing a big opportunity after Benfica failed to capitalise on playing against ten men for 70 minutes in the First Leg of this Champions League tie last week. Now the pressure is on the players to visit Barcelona and at least find a victory that could force Extra Time.
There is a confidence around Benfica that they can chase down rivals Sporting Lisbon in the race for the Portuguese title, but the focus turns back to European competition before continuing their title battle. This tie is still far from over, despite the home loss, and Benfica will point out that they have won 4 of 5 away Champions League games this season to back up their belief.
Benfica have lost 1 of their last 10 games in all competitions and they bounced back from the loss to Barcelona by beating Nacional 3-0 at home this past weekend. Since losing 3-1 at Casa Pia, Benfica have won 4 away games in a row in all competitions and that run includes away Champions League victories at Juventus and Monaco.
Alvaro Carreras is out through suspension, but Tomas Araujo is expected to be available for selection. Unsurprisingly, Bruno Lage made changes to his starting eleven on Saturday with this Second Leg in mind.
Head to Head
Barcelona have already won twice in Lisbon in the Champions League this season.
Barcelona had won their first 2 home games against Benfica, but the last two when hosting have both ended goalless in 2012 and 2021.
Prediction
You cannot help feel that a team might have something against you personally when being financially involved in a couple of their Champions League games and twice seeing a sending off within 22 minutes.
Barcelona had a man sent off after 10 minutes at Monaco all the way back on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage and last weekend they were down to ten men after 22 minutes.
Assuming they are not reading these pages and deliberately looking to make life awkward, Barcelona may use the emotions of this past weekend to ease past Benfica in this Champions League Second Leg.
The sudden passing of team doctor Carles Minarro Garcia saw the fixture against Osasuna postponed with the squad not ready to compete at all. They will try and rally around one another and perform in the memory of a much valued member of the team and Barcelona have been a team that have the attacking power to break down any opponent.
They have scored four goals in each of their last 2 home games and Barcelona will feel they can create strong opportunities against Benfica as long as they can keep a full complement of players on the field. Last season it was another early sending off that cost Barcelona against Paris Saint-Germain so discipline is an issue, but this Second Leg situation should suit the Spanish Primera Division club.
Benfica have to be respected- they have won 4 of 5 away Champions League games and were only narrowly beaten 1-0 at Bayern Munich in the other fixture in that time. Back to back away Champions League wins without conceding a goal shows the organisation that Bruno Lage has instilled in the squad, but at some point they may have to take chances and that is where Barcelona could punish the visiting team.
Some of the underlying numbers produced by Benfica in the Champions League deserve further respect, but they struggled to contain Bayern Munich in Bavaria and the feeling is that this Barcelona team might be motivated to produce a big performance in honour of their team doctor in the early Tuesday kick off.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Barcelona 2-0 Benfica
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.95 with Bet365
