Italian Serie A
2025-05-04 - Empoli vs Lazio
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 35
Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli, Tuscany, Italy (16,167)
Sunday, 4th May 2025, 12:30 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Empoli Team News
Empoli hasn't won a Serie A game since early December - that's 19 consecutive games without a win now - and, as a result, relegation is looming with four rounds to go.
Empoli is the worst of the three candidates for two remaining relegation spots other than already relegated Monza. As Lecce (27 points) and Venezia (26) already lost their respective games, Empoli actually has a chance to leave the relegation zone with a win here as in that case they'd have 28 points.
We all know what a giant killer Empoli is, but they haven't had any such success recently. As a matter of fact, this side is now losing games against big teams with a handicap. Whatever worked before, no longer works.
Lazio Team News
Lazio is 7th, tied with 6th-placed city rival Roma at 60 points but with a worse goal difference. Roma is playing later today, against Fiorentina, so Lazio has a clear job here - win this game. The 6th place brings Conference League so this isn't really a target for Lazio though they wouldn't mind this consolation prize, but what they're really after is the Champions League. Juventus, the last team that's currently holding the CL spot, is at 62 points.
The third-best offense in Italy must therefore find a way to break Empoli's defensive guard while keeping a clean sheet for a change. Lazio has conceded 45 goals in 34 rounds, which is almost the same tally as Venezia, so conceding must stop if Lazio wants to make a late run for that CL spot.
Probable Lineups
Empoli (3-4-2-1): Vasquez - Goglichidze, Ismajli, Viti - Gyasi, Marianucci, Fazzini, Pezzella - Cacace, Esposito - Colombo. Coach D'Aversa.
Lazio (4-2-3-1): Mandas - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Guendouzi, Rovella - Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni - Castellanos. Coach Baroni.
The Betting Market
Lazio is a 1.83 favourite, and it seems to us that this price would be better suited to those times when Empoli was a true giant killer in this league. They no longer seem to be.
Over 2.5 Goals and Under 2.5 Goals market is evenly split at 1.90, while the Both Teams To Score market is leaning towards a Yes with a price of 1.80.
The Betting Verdict
Lazio needs the points, and although Empoli does too, the home side didn't do much lately even against weaker opponents. Lazio's offense will get the job done, and if the defence does too, Lazio will take what could be crucial three points for the Champions League race.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Empoli 0-1 Lazio
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Lazio to Win at 1.83 at Bet365
