Italian Serie A
2025-05-23 - Napoli vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 38
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Campania, Italy (54,726)
Friday, 23 May 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Napoli Team News
You'd think Napoli would make light work of Genoa, Parma and Cagliari in their kind schedule from round 36 onwards, but they only managed to get a point at home against Genoa despite leading twice, and a point at Parma in a largely uneventful 0-0 game.
Long story short, this is an Antonio Conte team, and Antonio Conte wins titles - before he inevitably falls out with everyone and leaves the club. Two players are key to this success - Romelu Lukaku the one-man offense and Scott McTominay, who looks like a Superman in this league.
Napoli has, time and time again, shown that they're not really beating relegation candidates with a handicap, but are instead controlling the game and struggling to score. So many times we've seen Napoli barely take a 1-0 home win against the likes of Venezia or Lecce. Or something like a 2-1 win against Parma where Napoli scored both goals deep in injury time.
This is not a 5-0 kind of team and this won't happen here. This will be trench warfare at its finest, unless Napoli finds an early opening.
Cagliari Team News
Cagliari has mathematically secured their stay in Serie A for at least another season as they have 37 points while the 18th-placed team (Empoli) has 31. They achieved this feat by beating Venezia 3-0 in the previous round, and the recent 0-2 win in Verona also contributed to the overwhelming success of not having to worry about a thing in round 38.
Cagliari has a 3-5-10 16:26 record in away games, which is actually very good compared to their last season, and while they haven't won against a top side they have three draws against big teams: Juventus, Milan and Atalanta.
One notable trait of Cagliari this season was that they always seem to find a way to score even when visiting a top side, even when they have to do so totally against the run of play.
But we suspect something else will happen here in Naples this Friday.
Probable Lineups
Napoli (4-4-2): Meret - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Olivera, Spinazzola - Politano, Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay - Lukaku, Raspadori. Coach Conte.
Cagliari (3-5-2): Caprile - Zappa, Mina, Luperto - Zortea, Deiola, Makoumbou, Adopo, Augello - Piccoli, Viola. Coach Nicola.
Antonio Conte is suspended after his red card in Parma, so he won't be officially in charge of his team here.
The Betting Market
Betting on Napoli to win would require a really large stake to make it worth your while, as the odds are 1.16. But whatever you stake on this game, arguably Napoli's stakes are higher - so that makes it alright. At the very least, the difference in money for TV rights is 4 million euros between 1st- and 2nd-placed finish in Serie A. And then there's the UEFA Market Pool money, with additional 2.5 million to add to this calculation.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 1.50, which means the bookmakers expect either a 3-0 win or a Napoli win with Cagliari scoring. Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.62.
The Betting Verdict
While the Under looks tempting, we have perhaps an even better bet. Napoli won't care about handicaps or about scoring in bunches, what they need here is a flawless victory that is never in any doubt.
And that means they will run for their lives in defence, with full intensity and full concentration. That's what Antonio Conte will tell them as he is fully aware that a Cagliari goal complicates things while a Napoli goal or two are all but certain.
Look for Napoli/Conte to dominate every centimeter of the pitch here and to win the scudetto by beating Cagliari to nil. There won't be any upsets here and this won't be a thriller.
By the way, if you want to bet on a thriller - Cagliari to score but Napoli to win eventually - you'll get 2.87 if you use the Bet365 Bet Builder to combine BTTS-Yes with a Napoli win.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Napoli 2-0 Cagliari
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Napoli Win to Nil at 1.80 at Bet365
