German Bundesliga
2025-09-27 - Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
MEWA Arena – Mainz
Saturday, 27th September 2025 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Mainz
Mainz put in a superb performance last week away at Augsburg, despite playing almost half a game without their team captain, Dominik Kohr, who received a red card. His team won 1-4, dominating from start to finish, and that was Mainz’s first Bundesliga win this season.
Before last week’s win, Mainz suffered two defeats and played one draw, which is not a good start. They are a decent Bundesliga side, but I doubt they will be able to battle for Europe this season.
However, Mainz has a surprisingly even recent record against Borussia Dortmund, having beaten them twice, drawn twice, and lost twice in their last six Bundesliga duels.
They won the last two played in Mainz, which gives them hope they can get something out of this match, but I believe that will be hard to achieve without their stable defensive anchor, Dominik Kohr, in this match.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund started the season excellently and is the closest follower of Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga. They collected 10 points from four matches, winning all their last three games and drawing 3-3 against St.Pauli in the first round.
Borussia Dortmund achieved a narrow 1-0 win against Wolfsburg last week, with Karim Adeyemi scoring the only goal, and they controlled the entire game well.
Borussia Dortmund's striker Serhou Guirassy has been in prolific form, scoring in eight consecutive Bundesliga games and leading the Bundesliga with 19 goals in 2025.
However, Borussia Dortmund’s defense has shown vulnerabilities, conceding late goals in recent matches, including a 4-4 draw against Juventus in the UEFA Champions League.
However, they have kept a clean sheet in five of their most recent seven Bundesliga games, so Borussia Dortmund looks like a strong contender for the Bundesliga title this season.
The Betting Verdict
Borussia Dortmund lost on both of their last two trips to Mainz, but won 3-1 in the latest duel played at the end of March this year.
The current form is clearly better at Borussia Dortmund, while Mainz lost both of their home games this season without scoring, against Koln and RB Leipzig.
It may be a close game again, but I would go with Borussia Dortmund winning this match at pretty good odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Mainz 0-1 Borussia Dortmund
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Borussia Dortmund to win at odds of 2.15 with BetFred
