Italian Serie A
2025-09-29 - Genoa vs Lazio
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 5
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Monday, 29 September 2025, 20:45 CET
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Genoa Team News
Genoa is an underish team, that's for sure. Like we said last week, a better copy of Lecce, yet still a very defensive side that aims to limit damage and then wait for that goal for 1-0. So far this season, Genoa hasn't managed to beat anybody, they have two draws and two defeats.
When you look at their results, they usually score, and they almost always concede. Due to sheer distribution of these outcomes, one of these days they'll score in the same match where they happen to get a clean sheet, so they'll get a win.
Lazio Team News
Lazio lost the derby against Roma but honestly it could have gone either way. Lazio was the slightly better opponent, had a few chances but failed to materialize. Roma had more composure and they scored on the day. That's it.
More worryingly, this defeat is already the third for Lazio in four rounds, as they only won 4-0 against Verona and lost to Como, Sassuolo and Roma. The scoreless 1-0 road defeats to Como and Sassuolo are really poor results for this side, and they used to be one of the most successful visitors in Serie A. It's possible that Lazio is due to turn this thing around and start getting results on the road.
Probable Lineups
Genoa (4-2-3-1): Leali - Norton-Cuffy, Ostigard, Vasquez, Martin - Masini, Frendrup - Ellertsson, Carboni, Stanciu - Colombo. Coach Vieira (red card).
Lazio (4-2-3-1): Provedel - Marusic, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini - Basic, Cataldi - Cancellieri, Pedro, Zaccagni - Castellanos. Coach Sarri.
The Betting Market
Lazio is the favourite and you can get tasty 2.55 if you think they'll turn a corner here. Genoa is priced at 3.10 and that's a tempting price if, on the other hand, you think Lazio's scoreless woes on the road will continue. The draw is priced at 3.00.
The price on Under 2.5 Goals is incredibly low, 1.57. This season we're witnessing sub-1.60 prices on unders in Serie A, and that hasn't happened before. Last season, around 1.63 was the lowest you could get, and obviously the bookmakers recorded a loss in this particular scenario. Logical conclusion would be to bet on unders in Serie A when you see a price 1.60 or below.
Both Teams To Score, on the other hand, is giving us 1.95 for Yes and 1.80 for No. We see this as a 0-1 or a 1-1, so no call here.
The Betting Verdict
Genoa is a mid-table team that finds it difficult to score, and Lazio is a top-third team that should be one of the best visitors in Serie A. So, despite the recent Lazio's woes, we think the right call here is to bet on the visitors. Taty Castellanos is announced in the starting lineup and that's a huge upgrade compared to Boulaye Dia.
You'd never bet on a team that's on a losing streak, right? Well that's a fallacy, you wouldn't get far in betting if you always bet on trends to continue. This particular one could be broken in Genova.
We'll take the Draw No Bet just to protect ourselves from a draw that would otherwise be catastrophic to a straight-up bet on Lazio. Also consider the under if you get anything close to 1.60.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Genoa 0-1 Lazio
