Italian Serie A
2025-10-28 - Lecce vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 9
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Tuesday, 28 October 2025, 18:30 CET
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Lecce Team News
From time to time, Lecce is involved in high-scoring matches, as was the case this weekend against Udinese. The home side won 3-2 after a 2-0 half-time lead. Lecce never looked like they'll get a draw here, they simply scored their second goal in the 96th minute so it looks like it was a thriller. It was not. Udinese won this one cleanly.
In most matches, however, Lecce will be comfortable with a 0-0 until the 60th minute if they can help it. Unless there's a good reason to go forward - such as the 2-0 in the first half - then Lecce will happily sit back and wait for a counter attack.
Napoli Team News
Against all odds, Napoli returned to the summit after Round 8. Milan had it all in their hands but failed to beat lowly Pisa at home, dropped points, and thereby allowed Napoli to climb to the top following an impressive 3-1 win against Inter. A much more likely scenario would have been Milan at the top, Napoli at #3, but here we are.
Those who are looking for reasons why Napoli is playing hot and cold, following up wins with losses and vice versa, need to look no further than the venue the match is being played at. At home, Napoli is 4-0-0, but on the road this side is much, much weaker, as evident from the defeats to Milan, Torino, and the 6-2 defeat in Eindhoven against PSV.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Helgason, Ramadani, Berisha - Pierotti, Stulic, Morente. Coach Di Francesco.
Napoli (4-1-4-1): Milinkovic-Savic - Di Lorenzo, Beukema, Buongiorno, Spinazzola - Gilmour - Politano, Anguissa, Elmas, McTominay - Lucca. Coach Conte.
Two changes are announced in the starting lineup for Napoli, though only Antonio Conte knows who will run out, the press does not. De Bruyne is having a muscular problem and Hojlund is doubtful and therefore likely to be replaced by Lucca.
The Betting Market
Napoli's win is priced at only 1.55, but we'd stay away from this is as a lot of things can go wrong with Napoli on the road, especially after an emotionally-draining win against the biggest rival a two days ago. Players are humans, as we often forget, and Napoli's eleven humans' energy level will be at 85% here, at best.
The bookmakers could be a bit wrong to set the Under 2.5 Goals at 1.80 here and you'd better catch this price before it drops. Both Teams To Score: NO is set at 1.70 and that's a good one as well, but the Under is better.
The Betting Verdict
There were a total of two goals scored in the last three meetings. Napoli scored both as Lecce failed to score in all three. This isn't a general rule as meetings between these two sides can and do have goals, but it's indicative of a football game in which only one team attacks and is finding it difficult to break through.
There's another general rule in football -- a team that played just recently is much less creative in offense. Sure, you could say Napoli just scored three against Inter so they'll score five against Lecce, but that's not how it goes. There will be ten bodies in the box here and Napoli's players could have used all their creativity in the derby. We're expecting a classic Napoli vs relegation candidate match here, which means there will likely be just one goal scored.
The Pick :
Lecce 0-1 Napoli
