Italian Serie A
2025-11-02 - AC Milan vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 10
San Siro, Milano, Lombardy, Italy (80,018)
Sunday, 02 November 2025, 20:45 CET
Free live streaming at Bet365. Funded account required.
Milan Team News
Milan's perch at the top of Serie A didn't last for long. One round. First they shot themselves in the foot with a 2-2 home draw against Pisa that was almost a 1-2 defeat, and they played 1-1 at Atalanta after scoring an accidental goal in the 4th minute and then doing little else after that.
Christian Pulisic is the key figure in this team and his absence is felt. He's the difference between winning and drawing a game, as he's the one who will score the statement goal. Without him, Milan can only walk their way to a draw at best.
Due to injuries, Loftus-Cheek and Nkunku are announced as the two most advanced players for Milan, and if this will indeed be the case, they'll have a hard time putting the ball into the net. Leao is an option too.
Roma Team News
Roma isn't playing well at all but is managing to win football matches. Repeatedly. We keep saying that this is a side that relies on very slim margins, but they're showing no signs of stopping down. It's like Colin Farrell winning on baccarat nine times in a row in that new movie Ballad of a Small Player. That's Roma for you. Goal difference of +6, seven wins. How is that even possible.
Anyway - if something like this keeps happening, it means it's no fluke. Roma finds a way to edge almost every match they play, in unique ways, and come out on top. They won trench warfare against city rivals Lazio 1-0, they won against all relegation candidates they've faced, and for sure they've got a good game plan against Milan.
Probable Lineups
Milan (3-5-1-1): Maignan - De Winter, Gabbia, Pavlovic - Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Ricci, Bartesaghi - Loftus-Cheek - Nkunku. Coach Allegri.
Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar - Hermoso, Mancini, Ndicka - Celik, Kone, El Aynaoui, Wesley - Soule, Cristante - Dybala. Coach Gasperini.
Pulisic, Rabiot and Jashari are still out for Milan. Gimenez is doubtful.
The Betting Market
Milan is the favourite at 2.20 but this price is best not touched. Sure, Milan won against Napoli and you could hope for the same here, but now there's so much more tape of Milan's matches to be watched by the opponents and, frankly, it's getting predictable. Roma will be looking to do their usual 1-0 Gasperini derby win here. If you think they'll do it, the price on Roma is 3.70. Not a bad punt at all.
A slow game with few chances is expected. The price on Under 2.5 Goals of 1.67 looks okay, but then again so does the Both Teams To Score: YES price of 1.91. Meaning, this game looks like a 1-1.
Roma To Score is a decent banker at 1.50. Dybala will find a way.
The Betting Verdict
It is somewhat surprising to see a price of 1.91 on BTTS-Yes on an AC Milan game after it was proven that they score and concede in almost every round - both in big matches and matches against minnows. The only way BTTS-Yes won't come through is if this is a one-goal game.
We think Roma will manage to score because, well, everyone manages to score against this Milan. On the other side, Milan has enough character to chase the score with success.
Incredibly, of last 15 meetings, 14 saw both sides score. We think the trend continues here. It will indeed be a slow, tight game but one side will score first, and then the other will catch up.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Milan 1-1 Roma
