NFL Football
2025-11-16 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Week 11
Sunday 16th November 2025 - Scheduled 1pm
6pm (British Time)
Preview
These two teams are amongst the leading contenders to be playing in the Super Bowl next February and both are going to be wanting to bounce back from disappointing defeats.
It may be a non-Conference game, but it is an important one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and Buffalo Bills (6-3) who share the same record, but that leaves them in different places as far as the standings go.
The Bills are suddenly finding the New England Patriots pulling clear in the AFC East with their 9-2 record, but the Bills will have to travel to Foxboro before the season is concluded. After losing at home, that is a big game for the Buffalo Bills, but they cannot afford to look past a dangerous opponent and make sure they remain touch with the Patriots.
Buffalo also have to avoid thinking ahead to the Thursday Night Football game on deck, but the loss to the Miami Dolphins will have refocused the team.
In Week 11 they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have a lead in the NFC South and they remain the team to beat in the Division.
Injuries are having an impact, but Baker Mayfield has really found a good home as Quarter Back of the Buccaneers and he will be confident he can help the team bounce back after losing to New England.
There is a real chance that Baker Mayfield could have a bit more run support in this game- Bucky Irving will not suit up, but the Buccaneers have to be encouraged by seeing how the Dolphins battered Buffalo on the ground in the Week 10 upset. Merely being in front of the chains would be a big success for the team and really give the Quarter Back an opportunity to keep the chains moving without having to settle and wait for routes to develop down the field out of third and long spots.
He needs that with the likes of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans missing from the passing game, although the competitor in Baker Mayfield will find a way to get things done.
Baker Mayfield will be a little wary of the pass rush that the Buffalo Bills have been generating in recent games and obvious passing situations will be considered a poor outcome for the Buccaneers. Instead they will want to control the clock and make sure Josh Allen, a close friend of Mayfield's, is left to cool down on the sidelines.
Running the ball would be expected to a challenging task for the Bills to take on considering what has been seen from this Tampa Bay Defensive Line this season, but recent games have been disappointing.
You could excuse the performance against the Detroit Lions, but Tampa Bay were bullied by the New England Patriots too and allowed some big runs to be ripped off against them.
James Cook and company should be able to pound the rock with some real success in this one, while Josh Allen is capable of using his legs to move down the field.
The Quarter Back will want a bounce back effort from the whole Offensive unit after the really poor display in losing in Miami last week.
With the Tampa Bay pass rush, the pocket will collapse around Josh Allen, but he can escape that and run down the field, while also being able to have success attacking this Secondary. One of the big criticisms of the Bills upper management is not bringing in a real top Receiver for Josh Allen to target, but they should be able to find enough successes to keep the chains moving in this one and Buffalo can bounce back with a victory.
Head Coach Todd Bowles is very adept at getting his team to perform when set as the road underdog, and that potential distraction by an upcoming Thursday Night Football game for the Buffalo Bills is a concern.
However, Buffalo are looking to bounce back from a loss- Baker Mayfield has been very successful at doing that for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season, but his team is still short of Offensive options and the Line of Scrimmage issues on the Defensive side of the ball leaves them vulnerable here.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite.
The Pick :
Buffalo Bills 24-17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
