English Premier
2025-12-20 - Newcastle United vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 20th December 2025 - Kick Off 12:30pm
This game is live on TV
Newcastle United
For the second time this season, Newcastle United scored an injury time winner to beat Fulham 2-1 and this time it meant progress into the League Cup Semi Final rather than picking up three Premier League points. There were some uncertain moments as more defensive injuries were picked up, but Newcastle United looked decent going forward and have been a different proposition to face at St James' Park compared with on their travels.
It was obviously important to bounce back from the disappointing defeat in the Tyne-Wear derby and Newcastle United will be looking to build on the midweek momentum. The side are 12th in the Premier League table ahead of this final fixture before Christmas Day, while The Magpies have a 5-1-2 record at St James' Park in the top flight.
Newcastle United have been in erratic form of late and they will be looking to win consecutive fixtures for the first time since late October when they come out for the first Premier League game of the weekend. Home form has been much more impressive and Newcastle United's late winner on Wednesday means they are unbeaten in 9 here in all competitions and have won 8 of those fixtures.
Tino Livramento had to be withdrawn during the win over Fulham and the feeling is that he is going to be sidelined through this festive period. He joins Kieran Trippier, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Sven Botman and Emil Krafth as defensive players set to miss out, while first choice goalkeeper Nick Pope and another defender Jamaal Lascelles are doubts.
Chelsea
Bizarre comments were made by Enzo Maresca right after Chelsea's 2-0 win over Everton last weekend and there is still some uncertainty as to what the manager meant. He made wholesale changes for the League Cup Quarter Final win at Cardiff City on Tuesday, but there is still pressure around Maresca who will have spent more time answering questions about his personal position rather than the recent Chelsea form.
The win over Everton moved Chelsea back into the top four, but recent setbacks have cooled talk of the team being able to progress into a genuine title contender. A return to the Champions League is a big ambition for the club and Chelsea make the long trip to the North East with a 4-2-2 away record.
Chelsea have won consecutive fixtures in all competitions having previously been on a 4 game winless run. After beating Burnley at Turf Moor, Chelsea played 3 away games without a victory and had been beaten twice in that run, but they were able to get the better of League One Cardiff City in the League Cup during the week.
Key players were rested or suspended in the win over Cardiff City and will be expected to be restored to the starting lineup, including Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernandez, Reece James and Cole Palmer. Estevao is a doubt this weekend, but may be available just after Christmas Day.
Head to Head
Both teams beat the other at home in the Premier League last season, while Newcastle United also beat Chelsea at St James' Park in the League Cup.
The Magpies have won 4 in a row at home against Chelsea in all competitions.
Prediction
This is not an easy match to call to open the Premier League weekend and the factor that is perhaps influencing the odds is the huge amount of defenders that will be missing for the home team.
Newcastle United have struggled for consistency of late having failed to win two matches in a row since the end of October, but they have been much stronger at home and a win over Fulham on Wednesday will have done the team a world of good.
As poor as they were at the Stadium of Light last weekend, Newcastle United will believe they have enough of an attacking threat to pose problems.
However, it is the defensive injury pile-up that has to be a concern and Newcastle United may find it tough to contain Chelsea.
Mentally they will feel good having beaten Chelsea four times in a row in this part of the North East, but the visiting team have pace and quality in the final third and that makes them dangerous.
In saying that, there is something bubbling under the surface at Stamford Bridge and Enzo Maresca has been far from happy this week, despite a couple of wins for his Chelsea team. Some of his comments in the press following the win over Everton have raised eyebrows, while his team had failed to win any of 3 away games in all competitions before beating League One Cardiff City this past Tuesday.
A draw cannot be ruled out, but both teams may feel happier on the front foot and so a winner may also be found.
In a tough match to call, the edge has to be given to Newcastle United at the odds and especially being able to back them with a start on the Asian Handicap.
They have shown they can win plenty of football matches here and only late goals have prevented them from having an unbeaten record at St James' Park.
Another cannot be ruled out with the defensive holes that need to be plugged, but Newcastle United can also push Chelsea back and may have enough to at least avoid a defeat.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle United 2-1 Chelsea
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Newcastle United + 0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.74 with Cloudbet
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
The lunchtime Kickoff game on Saturday has Newcastle (12th) facing Chelsea (4th) and the bookmakers are offering prices on the home side that have them as an outsider bet?
Newcastle are 5-1-2 at St James's Park so far this season, losing only to Arsenal and Tottenham and beating Man City and are rated 1104 pts at home - that's an elite ranking.
Chelsea are 4-2-2 when travelling, with a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth and a 1-3 loss to Leeds in their last two away league games - giving an away rating of 1051 - which is good but still 68 pts (2/3rds of a goal) behind Newcastle.
Based on my stats, we have 68 similar games previously played in the EPL, and the home side won 54% of those games - with 28% draw and just 18% away wins.
Doing the math ... a 54% chance of a 2.63 payout is 142% of EV and a must bet (and prices are continuing to climb on the home side).
Right now 2.81 at CLoudbet for the NEWCASTLE win is the bet for me.
Newcastle are 5-1-2 at St James's Park so far this season, losing only to Arsenal and Tottenham and beating Man City and are rated 1104 pts at home - that's an elite ranking.
Chelsea are 4-2-2 when travelling, with a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth and a 1-3 loss to Leeds in their last two away league games - giving an away rating of 1051 - which is good but still 68 pts (2/3rds of a goal) behind Newcastle.
Based on my stats, we have 68 similar games previously played in the EPL, and the home side won 54% of those games - with 28% draw and just 18% away wins.
Doing the math ... a 54% chance of a 2.63 payout is 142% of EV and a must bet (and prices are continuing to climb on the home side).
Right now 2.81 at CLoudbet for the NEWCASTLE win is the bet for me.
