Italian Serie A
2025-12-27 - Lecce vs Como
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 17
Stadio Via del mare, Lecce, Apulia, Italy (40,670)
Saturday, 27 December 2025, 15:00 CET
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Lecce Team News
Three home matches ago we said that Lecce hasn't yet won at home - and this side won the following two matches, against Torino and Pisa. The home record now certainly looks a lot better, and much more in sync with Lecce's past seasons, and it's the road performances that now stand out as a negative.
Lecce has certainly found its groove at home and will search for another win-to-nil here against Como in a low-scoring game of few chances. The average total number of goals in Lecce's home matches is 1.75 and there aren't many exceptions to the rule either.
Como Team News
Como is now in a series of two straight defeats as they played Inter and Roma - and were scoreless in both matches, by the way - and are now hoping that the easier opposition will let them win three points again.
Como is doing very well on the league table, as they're 7th, just behind Bologna and Juventus, with Lazio and Atalanta lurking. Problem with Como is that they don't win enough, as the 6-6-3 record showes a truth about Como -- this is a quality side that doesn't lose much, but lacks the offensive quality to win every week. In other words, you know Como is the favourite, but you can't really count on them to deliver.
Probable Lineups
Lecce (4-3-3): Falcone - Veiga, Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo - Coulibaly, Ramadani, Berisha - Morente, Stulic, Sottil. Coach Di Francesco.
Como (4-2-3-1): Butez - Smolcic, Carlos, Ramon, Moreno - Perrone, Da Cunha - Addai, Paz, Jesus Rodriguez - Douvikas. Coach Fabregas.
The Betting Market
You can only get up to 1.83 on Como to win here. The prices on Under and BTTS-No are expected, around the 1.70 mark, and we can perhaps be a bit surprised that the bookmakers didn't slap a sub-1.60 price on the Under here.
The Betting Verdict
It goes without saying, Como is the better team. But are they 1.80 good, 55.6% chance to win good, when they visit a tough-as-nails relegation candidate? Probably not. It's matches like these that are a serious problem for Como as they're expected to dictate play and they're a short-passing team that doesn't really open up space too well.
This match will be leaning towards the Under, and towards only one team doing the scoring. If Lecce have their way, they'll keep this game 0-0 for a long time and then score for 1-0. The visitors have the same plan.
That means Under 2.5 Goals for 1.66 and BTTS-No for 1.70 are both good bets, and due to the price difference being almost non-existent we choose the Under.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lecce 0-1 Como
