NCAA Football

2026-01-09 - Oregon Ducks at Indiana Hoosiers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Indiana Hoosiers vs Oregon Ducks
United States : College Football Semi Final
Friday 9th January 2026 - Scheduled 7:30pm
12:30am (British Time)

Preview

The Big Ten has taken over from the SEC as the Conference with the most likely contenders to win the National Championship and this is a Semi Final involving two of those teams.

The winner is going to be the favourite in the National Championship Game later this month and the question is whether it will be repeat or revenge when the Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) face the Oregon Ducks (13-1) in Atlanta?

The Hoosiers put together an unbeaten season, which included winning a road game in Oregon, and Indiana have crushed the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff Quarter Final. Some were wondering if this upstart could even beat a blue blood school at a big moment, but the Hoosiers are the only team in two seasons who have been the higher Seed to win the Quarter Final game played.

There is no doubting how good this Indiana team are, but they are facing an Oregon team that have beaten everyone other than the Hoosiers. A comfortable win over James Madison Dukes at home in the First Round would not have concerned too many, but shutting out the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Quarter Final and avoiding going out at the same stage for a second year in a row will have some taking notice.

Of course beating the Big Ten Champion is a very different task than beating the Big 12 Champion and this looks like it is another Semi Final that could go down to the wire.

Unlike the NFL, it is rare to play the same team twice in a season when it comes to College Football, although it does happen.

This year it has happened nine times, but the team that have won the first game have only repeated twice and that is something that the Indiana Hoosiers will have to be wary of in this Semi Final. The Hoosiers won by 10 points on the road and were pretty dominant on both sides of the ball, but Oregon will take plenty of heart from the way rematches have trended this season and the Ducks are much better than what they were able to show in that regular season defeat.

The two teams that have repeated regular season wins in the second time round both won by at least 22 point margins the first time around and were 20 plus point winners again.

However, none of the other seven games had been decided by more than 17 points and six were by single digit margins, which suggests this game is going to be another close one and a Semi Final Oregon can enter with some confidence.

In saying that, Oregon will be well aware that they need to be better across the board if they are going to knock off the Number 1 Seed and Conference Champion.

For starters they have to find a way to run the ball with some productivity to at least keep Quarter Back Dante Moore in third and manageable positions. Third Down conversion is going to be absolutely massive to the final outcome of this game and a Quarter Back expected to go very quickly in the NFL Draft in April has to be better than he was the first time around against this Defensive unit.

Dante Moore can take encouragement from the recent numbers the Indiana Secondary have allowed, although running the ball against this Hoosiers Defensive Line is going to be incredibly challenging. If the Ducks Offensive Line are not able to win at the Line of Scrimmage as far as the run game goes, they must be able to stand up to the Indiana pass rush and at least offer the star Quarter Back time to throw the ball down the field.

Two Interceptions were thrown in the regular season and that is something the Ducks will not be able to afford if they are going to upset the odds.

Avoiding those and learning from what they have seen already in the regular seaosn should give Dante Moore a better plan from which to attack, but the Quarter Back cannot take too many risks in what is going to be a battle.

The same will apply to Indiana, but they will be confident with the way they approached the first game and only mistake by Fernando Mendoza in the Fourth Quarter almost flipped the momentum. The game was tied up he threw a Pick Six, but Indiana were the better team and ultimately ran out pretty clear winners, even if they are expecting different looks in this Semi Final.

Indiana were well balanced in the regular season game, and they did not shy away from pounding the rock.

They only managed 3 yards per carry, but had two scores on the ground and the Hoosiers Offensive Line have been in powering mood down the stretch. They will also have noted some of the successes teams have had moving the ball against this Oregon Defensive Line in recent games and putting this team in third and manageable spots could be the key to repeat, rather than revenge.

Some even see this as a fight between two Quarter Backs that may go First and Second in the next NFL Draft and third and manageable would certainly give Fernando Mendoza to produce stronger numbers than Dante Moore.

He had over 200 passing yards in the road win over the Ducks and would have more time in the pocket if the team are able to move the ball a little bit more efficiently on the ground. The Hoosiers had kept Mendoza well protected in that regular season win and doing the same here would certainly mean the Number 1 Seed can come out on top.

As mentioned a few times, beating a team twice in the same season is not easy in College Football.

The Ducks need to be given a lot of respect for the season they have put together and they are going to have a plan to turn around that home defeat to Indiana.

However, the Hoosiers have continued to pound out the wins and they will feel they can win the battle of the Third Down conversions, which ultimately will be a key to the final outcome. As long as the turnover battle is level at the least, the Hoosiers can find a way to come out on top and earn the opportunity to win a National Championship later this month.

Prediction

This has the makings of being a really great Playoff Game featuring two Quarter Backs that will be expected to go very high in the NFL Draft.

However, it feels like the edge is with the top Seed overall and they can repeat a regular season win over the Oregon Ducks searching for revenge.