NFL Football
2026-01-18 - Houston Texans at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NFL Playoff Divisional Round Game
Sunday 18th January 2025 - Scheduled 3pm
8pm (British Time)
Preview
Two of the top Defensive units in the NFL meet in this Divisional Round Game on Sunday when the New England Patriots (15-3) host the Houston Texans (13-5).
They were both set as relatively narrow favourites in the Wild Card Round, but both the Patriots and Texans dominated behind these Defensive units.
However, it is Houston who have drawn the short straw by having to play on Monday Night Football in the Wild Card Round and that means having to compete on the road on a short week.
Much is going to depend on the Houston Defensive unit and they will take a huge amount of encouragement from the Drake Maye struggles against a more than competent Los Angeles Defense last week. The Texans will feel they have an even better unit than the Chargers and will be looking to confuse the young Quarter Back.
Running the ball is going to be the first target for the New England Patriots and they have had success doing that behind this Offensive Line, although rarely going up against a unit like this Houston Defensive Line. This battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be important in cold conditions and the Patriots will be keen to place Drake Maye in positive yardage situations, while also being able to slow down the fierce Houston pass rush.
There will be opportunities for Maye and the New England passing game if they are able to stay in third and manageable spots, although nothing is going to come easy in these conditions.
It will be tough for the hosts, but it is also going to be hugely challenging for the road team who are used to much warmer conditions than they are likely to find in Foxboro.
One of the big criticisms of the Houston Texans has been the performance of the Offensive unit and there is pressure on them to find enough points to help out the Defense.
The Texans will be looking to do the same as the Patriots and that is establish the run, but the Offensive Line have not played at the same level as the one New England will run out on the field. So while the Patriots will have belief in what they can do at the Line of Scrimmage, it may be tougher for the Houston Texans against a Patriots Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run.
CJ Stroud may be able to move around to clear away from the pass rush pressure, which can be something to slow this New England rush, but he is also going to be severely challenged when it comes to throwing against this Secondary.
Not only does it look like Christian Gonzalez is going to suit up for New England, but Houston are set to be without Nico Collins who is the big target for Stroud and that could make things very difficult.
The Fumbles in Pittsburgh were not punished and the Quarter Back is going to have to be close to his best if he is going to lead the Texans to a second consecutive road win.
There is a positive history for those teams chasing second road wins in succession in the Divisional Round, while it has been noted that hosts have been good at winning, but not necessarily covering.
However, the slight edge has to be with the New England Patriots to be able to do enough, as they did in the Wild Card Round, and the feeling is that Drake Maye can out-perform CJ Stroud in a game that could come down to the passing game.
Turnovers could change the entire momentum of this game, which is going to be close, but the New England Patriots can cover even in a relatively low-scoring win to progress to the AFC Championship Game.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite.
The Pick :
New England Patriots 20-13 Houston Texans
