German Bundesliga
2026-01-23 - St.Pauli vs Hamburger SV
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Millerntor Stadion – Hamburg
Friday, 23rd January 2026 - kickoff 20:30 CET
St.Pauli
St.Pauli continue to struggle in the Bundesliga, suffering a 3-2 loss to Borussia Dortmund last week. Despite coming back from 2-0 down, a late Emre Can penalty sealed their 11th defeat of the season.
St.Pauli sit at the bottom of the Bundesliga table on goal difference, just one point behind the relegation play-off spot, though they have a game in hand following their recent postponed game against RB Leipzig.
Recent form has been terrible, with St.Pauli failing to win 13 of their last 14 Bundesliga matches. However, they showed some promise at home by beating Heidenheim 2-1 in their last home game, ending a run of four consecutive home defeats.
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV were held to a goalless draw against Borussia Monchengladbach last week. They now sit four points above the relegation play-off spot, with a rescheduled match against Bayer Leverkusen still to come.
HSV’s home form has been better than their away displays. They remain without a single away win this season, losing six of their eight away games, and are currently on a five-game losing streak at away stadiums.
Their midfield, led impressively by Fabio Vieira in the absence of Albert Sambi Lokonga, shows composure, but the team continues to struggle to convert chances up front.
The three strikers that should lead their attack - Königsdörffer, Robert Glatzel, and Yussuf Poulsen have each managed just one goal this season, while their latest signing Downs is yet to establish himself on the team.
The Betting Verdict
St.Pauli holds the psychological edge after a 0-2 away win against HSV earlier this season.
Given Hamburger SV’s dismal away record and St.Pauli’s ability to defend well at home, the hosts are slight favourites, though goals may be limited.
I expect a tightly contested local derby, where I give St.Pauli a slight advantage to win it at high odds.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
St.Pauli 1-0 Hamburger SV
