Italian Serie A

2026-02-07 - Genoa vs Napoli

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

Genoa v Napoli
Italy Serie A - Round 24
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, Liguria, Italy (33,205)
Saturday, 07 February 2026, 18:00 CET
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Genoa Team News

The streak is still alive - since the appointment of Daniele De Rossi this side is only losing to top sides. It's fourteen rounds now and Genoa only lost to Roma, Atalanta, Inter and Lazio. We have to add a visiting 1-1 draw against AC Milan to these results.

If you remove these fixtures, Genoa is at 5-4-0 with De Rossi at the helm, with 18 goals scored. That's 2 goals per game, and Genoa is consistent, too. They usually score two or even three goals, and them scoring once is an isolated incident that doesn't happen too often.

That's a good, offensive side. It's also a sign of De Rossi's managerial quality as Genoa has been toothless before he arrived and this club doesn't really have a good roster at all.

Napoli Team News

The defending champion is now 9 points behind Inter and it's becoming clear that there's only one scudetto favourite in this league while everyone else is just a hopeful. Some seasons it can work, as it did for Napoli in 2024/25, but no side other than Inter has the quality to do well continuously.

In particular, Napoli first did well in a derby at Inter and came back with a 2-2 draw, at which point they were 4 points behind, but followed that success with a 0-0 home draw against the lowly Parma. Fast forward two weeks and Napoli loses 3-0 to Juventus, effectively removing themselves from the championship race.

Now, Napoli has the same idea everyone in Italy has almost every season - oh well, let's just win all our matches and hope Inter doesn't. Of course it won't work. Napoli is now in a battle for the Champions League, not for the scudetto.

Probable Lineups

Genoa (3-5-2): Leali - Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez - Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovsky, Ellertsson, Martin - Vitinha, Colombo. Coach De Rossi.

Napoli (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic - Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Juan Jesus - Politano, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola - Elmas, Lang - Hojlund. Coach Conte.

The Betting Market

Napoli is a 2.00 favourite and that's a good price if you believe Genoa's streak of losing to top sides will continue. Most likely, it will.

What's even more likely is that this game will have goals. The bookmakers are offering us 2.50 on Over 2.5 Goals and wise punters will take it. Napoli is a constipated side, they'd prefer to win 1-0 all the time, but they can easily be pulled into a high-scoring affair. Usually it's enough for the opponent to score and then Napoli's game is bound to go over 2.5.

Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 2.10, continuing an obvious trend in Serie A betting odds where BTTS is priced lower than Over 2.5 - simply because it happens almost all the time.

The Betting Verdict

Genoa will approach this fixture in the only way that they can - offensively. They scored in all but one of their defeats to top sides in their last 15 competitive fixtures. We think both teams will find the net, and at least one side will find it twice.

Also note that with these results Genoa is having it's only a matter of time before they claim a scalp of some big team. It hasn't happened yet but very soon it will - simply because they play so offensively and score 1-3 goals in each game. One of these days, a big side won't be able to respond.