ITALIAN SERIE A BETTING PICK - UDINESE V SASSUOLO

Italian Serie A

2026-02-15 - Udinese vs Sassuolo

A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa

Udinese v Sassuolo
Italy Serie A - Round 25
Stadio Friuli, Udine, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy (25,144)
Sunday, 15 February 2026, 15:00 CET
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Udinese Team News

Udinese may seem like a strange team when you look at the results, as this side can fail to beat Pisa at home yet win 1-0 against Roma, win in Verona but then lose at Lecce.

But there's a common denominator here. Udinese does not belong to the usual trope in football where a team beats the lesser sides and loses to superior opponents.

No, Udinese will always play well and will get a result more often than not, any venue, any opponent - it's just that you can't bet on them to win when favoured. That, in particular, is a role they don't play well. They're more likely to beat a relegation candidate on the road than at home.

It has been said many times that being favoured at home against a poor side is one of the most difficult tactical situations in football. You need to be very good to do it well, and have a roster to match.

Sassuolo Team News

Sassuolo just suffered a humbling 0-5 home defeat to Inter, and this continues a trend of games against top sides in which Sassuolo loses to nil. In their last six outings in Serie A, Sassuolo faced Juventus, Roma, Napoli and Inter, and hasn't scored a single goal while conceding 11.

Sassuolo did rather well against the other sides they've faced in the last two months, and the recent two wins against relegation candidates have propelled them to the 11th spot on the league table. Safety is ensured, so Sassuolo now plays for fun.

Probable Lineups

Udinese (3-5-2): Okoye - Bertola, Kristensen, Solet - Ehizibue, Ekkelenkamp, Karlstrom, Atta, Zemura - Buksa, Zaniolo. Coach Runjaic.

Sassuolo (4-3-3): Muric - Walukiewicz, Idzes, Muharemovic, Doig - Thorstvedt, Lipani, Kone - Berardi, Pinamonti, Lauriente. Coach Grosso.

It seems that the fewer high-profile players Udinese has in the roster, the better they do. Who is Adam Buksa anyway? Yet it works.

Nemanja Matic the mid-field general is suspended for Sassuolo and this will be a huge problem.

The Betting Market

We honestly expected something like 1.70 on Udinese and were prepared to scoff at the idea, yet the bookmakers are offering a whopping 2.69 on the home win. We, apparently, still live in a world where not only that Udinese gets prices of 2.00-2.20 against the likes of Lecce, Cagliari and Pisa, but also 2.50 against Genoa and 2.70 against Sassuolo.

It's good to see that the bookmakers haven't yet picked up on Udinese's solid form this season. Sure, they have a 4-4-4 12:16 record at home and aren't the kind of side that will surely win when favoured, but 2.70 is really too much.

Instead of our expected 1.70 on Udinese straight up, we're getting 1.775 on Udinese AH+0. Sweet.

An underish game is expected as the Under 2.5 Goals bet is priced at 1.66, while the Both Teams To Score: YES is priced at 1.80, indicating that the expected score here is 1-1.

The Betting Verdict

As Sassuolo is pretty much in a long series of defeats that was only briefly interrupted with wins over Cremonese and Pisa, you'd expect the recent newcomer to the league to roll over in Udine. However, their playing style makes them dangerous at any venue, as they soak up pressure with success and then launch dangerous direct counter attacks. They can really beat anyone with this style on a good day.

That being said, we expect both teams to score at least once here, as was the case in most of Udinese's recent matches (six of ten) and most of Sassuolo's matches that aren't against the top sides.

This game will be leaning towards a home win, and we'll gladly take the offer of an Asian Handicap +0 on Udinese that gets us our stake back in case of a draw.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

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