Italian Serie A
2026-02-22 - Atalanta vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 26
Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, Bergamo, Lombardy, Italy (21,747)
Sunday, 22 February 2026, 15:00 CET
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Atalanta Team News
Atalanta is a club in Serie A that's advancing most rapidly, as they had an awful first part of the season, plagued by many draws. Now they're winning more often than not, and that means that they're knocking on the door of Champions League, with 42 points, same as 6th-placed Como, whereas the 4th-placed Roma is on 47.
If we look at the league table for the last 10 rounds only, Atalanta would be 2nd, just behind Inter, with 23 points won from possible 30. Inter has 28, Napoli, for comparison, has 19.
Even despite selling Ademola Lookman, Atalanta hasn't skipped a beat, as there's enough talent in this roster to make up for the loss of the best offensive player. Come to think of it, Atalanta might be better off, Lookman has been dribbling a bit too much, which always slows offense.
You can always count on Atalanta to have another 20-million player younger than 25 waiting on the sidelines when someone is sold or injured. In this case, Lazar Samardzic will be given a bigger role.
Napoli Team News
As Serie A sides that are not Inter come to terms with not winning the scudetto, including the current champions Napoli, the liberation that stems from this fact now means that the battle is on for the remaining three Champions League spots. AC Milan leads with 54 points, Napoli is on 50, with Roma at 47 and Juventus on the outside looking in at 46.
Any poor result in a derby can quickly push Napoli out of the Champions League for next season, and in fact the 3-0 loss at Juventus and the 2-2 against Roma are the two results from the last 30 days that brought these worries upon Napoli. Now they're in a situation where a defeat to Atalanta could be the last nail in the coffin. They also dropped out of the cup to Como.
Most of Napoli's recent matches have been high-scoring.
Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi - Scalvini, Djimsiti, Ahanor - Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi - Samardzic, Zalewski - Krstovic. Coach Palladino.
Napoli (3-4-2-1): Milinkovic-Savic - Beukema, Buongiorno, Juan Jesus - Gutierrez, Lobotka, Elmas, Spinazzola - Politano, Vergara - Hojlund. Coach Conte.
McTominay is doubtful for Napoli and will likely sit this one out, but Lukaku will appear on the bench. De Ketelaere is out for Atalanta.
The Betting Market
Atalanta is a slight 2.59 favourite because playing at home, but we'd argue that the way this market is leaning is actually emphasizing the value on Napoli 3.06. The champions should be favoured here, just by a bit.
Over 2.5 Goals is priced too high at 2.10, while the Both Teams To Score market is closer to reality as the Yes option is priced at 1.80, the way it should be. That's a solid bet right there.
The Betting Verdict
Napoli is the better side here, that much is clear. But this H2H is filled with action-packed upsets such as Atalanta's 0-3 win in Naples in a period where Napoli was at its strongest.
Napoli has recovered since with a 2-3 visiting win in Bergamo and a 3-1 home win to finally make things right. It only goes to show that we can expect fireworks here and there's no telling who will win. We think Napoli is slightly favoured but that doesn't mean much when these two sides meet.
Let's focus on the goals market instead, especially as looking at the recent results - 1-2, 0-3, 0-3, 2-3, 3-1 - it's ridiculous to see a price of 2.10 on Over 2.5. Only one of last eleven meetings had less than three goals, and it was a 2-0 dominant home win for Napoli. The total goals average in those eleven meetings is 3.81.
If you're looking for bankers, Over 1.5 Goals for 1.36 is it, and Over 2.5 for 2.10 is a really solid bet that will likely go through.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atalanta 2-2 Napoli
