Champions League
2026-03-11 - Real Madrid vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 First Leg
Wednesday 11th March 2026 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Real Madrid
It has been a season of upheaval for Real Madrid who at least avoided their earliest exit in the Champions League since 1990 by beating Benfica in the Knock Out Play Off Round last month. They have fallen 4 points behind Barcelona domestically and the Champions League Last 16 draw has once again pitted Real Madrid against Manchester City for the fifth season in a row in the Knock Out Rounds of the competition.
The controversy from the Knock Out Play Off Round First Leg win over Benfica will continue off the field, but Real Madrid will have been happy with the two performances in the 3-1 aggregate win. They only just missed out on the top eight places in the League Phase of the competition and home form has been key for Real Madrid who have won 4 of the 5 games played here in the Champions League this season.
Real Madrid suffered consecutive defeats in January, but have since won 8 of the last 12 games in all competitions. However, the inconsistent performances means the other 3 fixtures in that run have all ended in defeat. The side had won 7 in a row at home in all competitions, but that run was ended in a 0-1 defeat to Getafe at the beginning of the month.
Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe are set to miss out in huge blows for the Spanish giants. There are a number of other absentees, but the hope is that David Alaba and Eduardo Camavinga will have overcome knocks, while the likes of Alvaro Carreras and Dean Huijsen are available having served domestic suspensions.
Manchester City
A wasteful display coupled with some poor officiating decisions cost Manchester City two points in the Premier League title race last weekend. Pep Guardiola will have been disappointed by the 2-2 result against Nottingham Forest, but his squad showed character in coming from goal behind to beat Newcastle United in the FA Cup Fifth Round and take their place in the Quarter Final of that competition.
There is still so much for Manchester City to play for and the Premier League title race is far from over as far as they are concerned, but the attention now shifts to the Champions League. Since winning the competition in 2023, Manchester City have not been beyond the Quarter Final and both runs have been ended by Real Madrid. The side do have a 2-1-1 away record in the Champions League this season and that includes winning at the Santiago Bernebeu.
Manchester City are unbeaten in 11 games in all competitions and have won 9 of those matches, although a couple of draws in the Premier League have allowed Arsenal to pull away for now. The win at St James' Park on Saturday makes it 3 straight away wins for Manchester City since blowing a 0-2 lead at Tottenham Hotspur last month.
Erling Haaland was rested on Saturday and should be restored to lead the line. Others like Ruben Dias, Rodri and Antoine Semenyo are also set to be in the starting line up for this big Champions League tie.
Head to Head
Manchester City came from behind to beat Real Madrid 1-2 here in the League Phase of the Champions League in December.
It was Real Madrid who had been unbeaten in 4 against Manchester City prior to that result, including beating them twice in the Knock Out Play Off Round tie thirteen months ago.
Real Madrid had also been unbeaten in 4 at home against Manchester City prior to December.
Prediction
This has become a very familiar Knock Out tie in the Champions League in recent years with Real Madrid and Manchester City meeting for the fifth time in a row in such settings.
Over the last couple of years, it is Real Madrid who have gotten the better of Manchester City, although both clubs will feel they have largely disappointed in the competition.
Real Madrid think anything less than picking up the trophy is a disappointment, but it is very hard to see them having a deep run this time around. Injuries have left them looking vulnerable and even a long winning run at the Santiago Bernebeu was ended by Getafe earlier this month.
They do tend to reserve their best for the Champions League, but being without Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe leaves Real Madrid looking very vulnerable.
Even if this is not the Manchester City that won 'The Treble' in 2003, there is enough about them to believe they can get the better of Real Madrid.
A win here in December can only have given the players a huge sense of belief after failing to win the previous 4 against Real Madrid, while Manchester City's win at Newcastle United on Saturday has maintained some real momentum.
Pep Guardiola was able to rest some key players in that Cup tie and that gives Manchester City another edge as they look to secure a second win in this Stadium during the course of the season.
No one should be overlooking Real Madrid's capabilities, but recent Manchester City form looks to be impressive enough to believe they can secure a lead to take back to the North West of England.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Real Madrid 1-2 Manchester City
