Champions League

2026-05-05 - Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Arsenal v Atletico Madrid
Football: UEFA Champions League Semi Final Second Leg
Tuesday 5th May 2026 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV

Arsenal

Saturday could not have played out any better for Mikel Arteta and his Arsenal team- they scored three first half goals to ease any tension around the Fulham fixture in the Premier League title race and that allows key players to earn rest ahead of this Champions League Semi Final decider. Goal difference may yet be a factor in the English title race and so things could not have gone better than a 3-0 victory that shifts the pressure onto Manchester City.

Focus turns back to the Champions League and Arsenal will feel they deserved more than a 1-1 draw they return with from the Spanish capital. A late VAR intervention prevented Arsenal from having another Penalty and a chance to have a lead to protect back in North London, but everyone associated with the club have to be confident in the current position in the tie. The Gunners have won 5 of 6 home Champions League ties, although the most recent ended in a goalless draw with Sporting Lisbon.

Arsenal have won consecutive Premier League games either side of the Champions League Semi Final First Leg and that will have restored some confidence after a sticky patch. They are unbeaten in 3 at home in all competitions and Arsenal have kept clean sheets in each of those fixtures, while earning back to back wins over Newcastle United and Fulham.

Some key players were rested for the start of the Premier League game played this past weekend, while others like Bukayo Saka and Victor Gyokeres were taken off early having done their main work. The doubts are around Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz, although the latter is expected to be available.

Atletico Madrid

Changes were made to the starting eleven in the 0-2 win at Valencia with Atletico Madrid firmly on course for another top four finish in Spain and a return to the Champions League. Attention has long been on a strong ending to the current Champions League campaign and Atletico Madrid may still feel they have an opportunity in this Semi Final tie, despite the 1-1 draw at home.

The overall picture for Atletico Madrid this season is that they have been in stronger at home and that is underlined in the Champions League. They have won 2 of the 7 away Champions League fixtures played this season, but Atletico Madrid have been beaten 3 times and that includes on a couple of visits to North London.

Atletico Madrid have lost 1 of the last 5 games in all competitions in normal time, while they are unbeaten in 3 and have won twice in that run. The side had lost 5 of 6 away games in all competitions with the exception being a 1-2 win at Barcelona in the Champions League Quarter Final First Leg, but Atletico Madrid may feel better after the win in Valencia.

Julian Alvarez is a huge figure for the Spanish club and there is a hope that the knock this past weekend is not going to prevent him from travelling. Changes were unsurprisingly made for the game at Valencia and that has allowed some key players to be kept fresh.

Head to Head

This is the fifth meeting overall and the third in the 2025/26 season.

Arsenal drew 1-1 when hosting Atletico Madrid in 2018, but thumped them 4-0 here in October during the League Phase of the competition.

Prediction

There was a lot to like about some of the performance that Arsenal produced in the Spanish capital last week and so much more about the way they overwhelmed Fulham on Saturday.

Unsurprisingly, they are big favourites to get the better of Atletico Madrid with a 1-1 draw behind them, but not many teams are going to roll over in the way Fulham did.

That has to be the expectation when an Atletico Madrid that is fully focused on the Champions League arrive in North London. Yes, Arsenal crushed them 4-0 here in October, but they had beaten Paris Saint-Germain comfortably in the League Phase of the Champions League last season before losing both Semi Final Legs and you cannot read too much into that earlier performance.

You can point out that Atletico Madrid have not been nearly as effective away from home as they have in front of the home supporters and this was a team beaten 3-2 at Tottenham Hotspur in the Last 16 Second Leg.

However, they won at Barcelona in the Quarter Final, albeit after the hosts were reduced to ten men, and Atletico Madrid have looked really focused on this competition and have found a way.

Diego Simeone’s experience is important, but Arsenal have to be respected with how they have continued to produce big results.

Mikel Arteta’s team struggled to edge past Sporting in the last Round and there was enough in this Semi Final First Leg to give Atletico Madrid encouragement, although it feels understandable that the hosts have been set as the favourites.

The feeling is that they are too short a price though and backing Atletico Madrid with a full goal start that returns the stake in the event of a narrow defeat looks the play with every chance the Spanish club can find a way to force Extra Time at the least.