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2026-03-22 - Arsenal vs Manchester City

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Arsenal v Manchester City
Football: English League Cup Final
Sunday 22nd March 2026 - Kick Off 4:30pm
This game is live on TV

Arsenal

Another strong home performance resulted in passage through to the Champions League Quarter Final and this is an opportunity for Arsenal to tick off the first of potentially an unprecedented Quadruple of trophies to conclude the 2025/26 season. They will be favourites to reach the Champions League Semi Final, have a strong lead in the Premier League and Arsenal continue to make strong progress in both domestic Cup competitions, which has only shortened the odds on the team picking up all four trophies that they could have earned at the start of the campaign.

Mikel Arteta and his players will not be taking anything for granted, but have to be coming into the League Cup Final in confident mood following the 2-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League Last 16 Second Leg. They were beaten in the League Cup Semi Final last season, but Arsenal have seen off Port Vale, Brighton, Crystal Palace and Chelsea on their way to Wembley Stadium and a chance to win the first silverware since the 2020 FA Cup.

Arsenal have won 6 of the last 7 games in all competitions and they have pushed the unbeaten run to 14 games, during which time they have won 11 games. Outside of a recent win in the North London derby, the one potential pitfall for Arsenal is that they have not been as fluent away from the Emirates Stadium as they have been at home.

Jurrien Timber and Martin Odegaard have to be considered doubts for this fixture.

Manchester City

The poor first half in the Last 16 Champions League tie against Real Madrid proved to be too much for Manchester City to overcome and they were beaten in the Second Leg earlier this week. However, Pep Guardiola's men played with real determination and looked the better team before Bernardo Silva was sent off for a handball on the line and Manchester City were never going to overcome being reduced to ten men and giving away a Penalty in the same action.

It is a result that continues what has been a very difficult couple of weeks for Manchester City and there is a real fear that this could be the second consecutive season without a trophy. This is not something that Pep Guardiola is accustomed to and he will be looking to pick his players up and try and win this League Cup Final and hope that builds momentum for the final two months of the campaign. The side have beaten Huddersfield Town, Swansea City, Brentford and Newcastle United as Manchester City return to the Final for the first time since winning the Cup in 2021.

Manchester City have won 1 of the last 5 games in all competitions and those setbacks have led to the exit in the Champions League and falling 9 points behind Arsenal in the Premier League title race. The last couple of games away from the Etihad Stadium have been a 3-0 defeat in the Spanish capital and a 1-1 draw at West Ham United in the UK capital.

Bernardo Silva will be serving a European ban next year, but he will be available for this fixture. Some changes were made in the Second Leg to keep key players as fresh as possible for this League Cup Final and the manager may choose to make one or two more changes considering Manchester City had to play much of the Champions League Last 16 Second Leg with ten men.

Head to Head

These teams have only met once this season in the 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium- Arsenal scored the equaliser in injury time on that day back in September.

Arsenal are now unbeaten in 6 games in all competitions against Manchester City, but 4 have ended in draws.

Prediction

The League Cup Final used to be played in February, but a change in the calendar came about after the extension of the Champions League/Europa League Group Stage, which is now played through January when the two Legged Semi Final of this competition were historically played.

It may actually make a little more sense for the fixture to be the last before the March international break and it is one that will draw attention by featuring the top two English clubs in the country.

However, there is a feeling that the League Cup Final has become more of a standalone contest than if it was played a month ago.

Back then it could have been a real momentum shifter for the two Premier League title challengers with the winner kicking on and the losing team trying to pick themselves up. Instead, Manchester City have dropped some critical points this month and that has allowed Arsenal to move 9 points clear and with the games now down to single digits left on each schedule.

This does not mean it is not vitally important for both clubs- Manchester City do not dare think about a second season without a trophy, while Mikel Arteta has not seen his team pick up ANY silverware in almost six years.

Arsenal are rightly down as the favourites on current form, but they have not been as strong outside of the Emirates Stadium.

They were largely in control against Bayer Leverkusen, but the last month has been more of a grind and that is unlikely to be much different in this League Cup Final when moments of magic could prove to be the difference between the teams on the day.

Two very good strikes helped Arsenal beat Leverkusen and Manchester City will be aware of the threat from set pieces.

Pep Guardiola's men had a much tougher test on Tuesday when reduced to ten men early in the first half against Real Madrid, but some key players were given a bit of time to recover and that should help. They haven't been playing terribly in recent weeks, but the fine margins have worked against them and Manchester City fans will be hoping that the manager gets his team selection right.

A lot has changed since September, but that last meeting between Arsenal and Manchester City was tight and competitive and ended in the latest draw between the teams.

Neither manager is going to want to give much away in this one and only a Federico Chiesa goal in the 94th minute prevented the fifth League Cup Final in a row to finish with fewer than three goals shared out.

4 of the last 6 between Arsenal and Manchester City have been low-scoring, battling affairs and the League Cup Final is unlikely to be much different.