Champions League
2026-04-14 - Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg
Tuesday 14th April 2026 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Atletico Madrid
It might have been a few years since Atletico Madrid have been able to progress beyond the Champions League Quarter Final, but Diego Simeone's team have put themselves in a strong position after the First Leg of this tie. Taking advantage of Barcelona being reduced to ten men was key, but Simeone will be well aware that there is still some significant work to get through if Atletico Madrid are to take their place in the last four.
Having a two goal lead to protect is a big advantage for an Atletico Madrid team who have won 5 of the 6 home games played in the Champions League this season. The exception was a surprising defeat to Bodo/Glimt, but Atletico Madrid will feel in a strong position knowing a narrow defeat would still be enough to earn a spot in the Semi Final of the Champions League for the first time since 2017.
Atletico Madrid have not been in the most impressive of form and the 2-1 defeat at Sevilla means they have lost 4 of the last 5 games in all competitions. Of course the exception is the 0-2 win at the Camp Nou last week, but Atletico Madrid's 6 game winning run at home was ended in a 1-2 defeat to Barcelona days before the Quarter Final First Leg.
One eye was firmly on the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg in the team selection for the defeat at Sevilla. David Hancko is a doubt, while Marc Pubill is suspended.
Barcelona
In recent seasons, Barcelona will feel some fortune has been lacking when it comes to the business end of the Champions League and the Quarter Final First Leg has certainly frustrated all associated with the club. Not only were they reduced to ten men in the first half to make things difficult, but manager Hansi Flick felt his team deserved a second half Penalty and perhaps having the number of men evened up.
The two goal deficit is a blow, but Barcelona have to believe that scoring first in the Second Leg will give them every chance of turning things around. One issue is that Barcelona have only won 2 of the 5 away Champions League games played this season, while they have failed to win any of the last 3 away Knock Out ties played in the competition.
Barcelona bounced back from the disappointment of the Quarter Final First Leg defeat by beating rivals Espanyol 4-1 at home this past weekend and they have won 5 of the last 6 games in all competitions. They have won 2 of the last 3 away games played, but the exception was the 1-1 draw at Newcastle United in the Champions League Last 16 First Leg.
Pau Cubarsi is suspended after this first half sending off last week. Frenkie de Jong is hoping to be involved, while some changes will be made to bring back some key players that were rested in the win over Espanyol.
Head to Head
This is the sixth meeting between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid this season and the former have won 3 with the latter winning twice.
However, it is Atletico Madrid who came through the Copa Del Rey tie and they will feel they can do the same in this Champions League tie as well.
Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona 4-0 here in the Copa Del Rey First Leg, but the Catalan giants have won 5 of the last 6 visits here, including that 1-2 win in the League earlier this month.
Prediction
In a lot of cases, a two goal lead from the away Leg of any Knock Out tie would feel like a big advantage, but there still feels like something is in this tie for Barcelona.
So much went wrong in the First Leg and scoring first will reignite the contest, but Barcelona have to find some balance and cannot afford to make the kind of mistakes they did in the Camp Nou.
Being reduced to ten men was a body blow, but Barcelona were still the better team overall and they have enjoyed recent visits to Atletico Madrid. They won here in the League earlier this month and that is one of 5 wins in 6 trips to Atletico Madrid, although no one in Barcelona colours will need reminding of the 4-0 defeat here in the Copa Del Rey earlier in the campaign.
Diego Simeone's men have not been in the best recent form, but the experienced manager will set his team up to manage the lead they have and that could mean Barcelona dominating the fixture as they have done against Atletico Madrid in recent times.
They will have plenty of respect for Atletico Madrid and what this team can do, but Barcelona still look the better team and this tie does feel like it is far from over.
The first goal is going to be hugely important.
If Barcelona can score, they certainly have enough to force Extra Time and perhaps even win this tie in normal time, but Atletico Madrid are likely going to sit in and hope to counter the high line. That has been successful for them against Barcelona over the last couple of years, but rarely at home and the Catalan giants can win this Second Leg.
Whether that is enough to eventually push through to the Champions League Semi Final is another story, but backing Barcelona to win here looks the right play.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Atletico Madrid 1-3 Barcelona
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Barcelona to Win at 1.90 with BetFred
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Let's start with the main question for you to consider- just how good are Barcelona, especially on the road ?
At home, we know that Barca are fierce, with a 16-0-0 record in La liga, and a slightly less impressive 4-0-2 in the Champions League, with losses to PSG and last week to Atletico Madrid in the first leg. So very scary at home.
But how do Barcelona go when travelling ?
The answer is that in Spain they are pretty good, going 10-1-4 in La Liga this season when travelling - which is the leagues top road record. Recent games have shown some wobbles with away losses at Girona and Real Sociedad (both by 1-2 score lines).
In Europe it's not as strong. Just a 2-3-1 record from six games, beating Newcastle and Slavia Prague, and losing 0-3 at Chelsea while looking totally disinterested.
In a Copa Del Rey fixture this season, Barcelona lost here against Atleti by a 4-0 score line as they self-destructed, and although they won the return fixture by a 3-0 score Barca were eliminated.
For their part, Atletico Madrid are 4th in LA Liga this season, picking up 40 points at home with a 13-1-2 home record, and the most recent of those losses was just 10 days aga when they lost 1-2 to ... you guessed it ... Barcelona.
When I consult my UCL spreadsheet, it says that Atletico Madrid make home advantage count in Europe, far better than Barca travel and so it has Atleti half a goal better and about 43% likely to win.
But when I put the same game into the LaLiga spreadsheet, which it could be argued is a better idea as it has far more data, and this is an all-Spanish tie then it says the Barcelona are better by 3/10th of a goal and that a price of 2.00 for an away win might be fair.
So what does that mean?
Is the Barca "fear factor" more potent in Spain and teams expect to be beaten?
Or does Barca travel small distances well but doesn't like air travel?
I feel that it's probably the fact that La Liga struggles to provide a real test for Barcelona and they stroll through 70% of their games without much effort ... which doesn't help us here.
Looking at the head to head over the last 2 years, these teams have met 10 times in all competitions, with Barcelona leading the results 6-1-3 at all venues. When played at Atletico Madrid's The Metropolitano, we see just 1 Atleti win, and four Barcelona victories.
Then we have the game situation. Atletico Madrid lead 2-0. They don't need to come forward. Atleti will happily take a 0-0 draw, and/or even a 0-1 loss as they will progress. So expect caution from the home side.
And maybe expect a wee bit of caution from Barcelona too, as they know to go on all out attack as they did in the first match is simply to invite a counter attack which atleti are masters of doing.
So we're left with a situation where the away side needs to win by a couple of goals - and that reminds me of a famous night at Anfield in 1989 when Arsenal came calling to face Liverpool needing the same result a win by 2 goals.
Arsenal were searching for their first title in 18 years, while Liverpool had won the title TEN (!!) times in that gap and were the undisputed masters of English football. No one gave Arsenal a chance. No one.
Arsenal won that night, by playing tight, safe, football especially in the 1st half and Liverpool didn't come forward. Arsenal scored early in the second half, and Liverpool ? Well they still didn't come forward.
The night is history as Arsenal scored a second goal late on in injury time and won 2-0 to stun Liverpool and the Kop. A league title won after 18 years of trying. Cue an all-night party that began in the Anfield dressing room and ended back in North London.
Why did I tell you that? Not just to annoy Liverpool fans, but to also point out that sometimes the situation shapes a game more than it should.
I would not be surprised if it's 0-0 at halftime again. If Barcelona score then expect more defence from Atletico - and it's that fact that makes me say I can't back Atletico here.
So, after racking my brain, consulting spreadsheets, going on a nostalgic journey I end up with the same RESULT as Auls has picked. I expect Barcelona to win the game, although I am not sure if they'll win the tie.
Of course we could all be stunned and Atletico could win again.
Or Atleti could launch a counter attack late on and grab a vital goal when Barca get desperate and go all out, because Barcelona's high line defence in 2026 is not as strong as the famous ARSENAL back four was in 1989 !!
But still overall - I think that Barcelona will win this match.
Take BARCELONA TO WIN prices are down to 1.80 now ... as everyone is on it ... so I don't know if it's worth taking.
At home, we know that Barca are fierce, with a 16-0-0 record in La liga, and a slightly less impressive 4-0-2 in the Champions League, with losses to PSG and last week to Atletico Madrid in the first leg. So very scary at home.
But how do Barcelona go when travelling ?
The answer is that in Spain they are pretty good, going 10-1-4 in La Liga this season when travelling - which is the leagues top road record. Recent games have shown some wobbles with away losses at Girona and Real Sociedad (both by 1-2 score lines).
In Europe it's not as strong. Just a 2-3-1 record from six games, beating Newcastle and Slavia Prague, and losing 0-3 at Chelsea while looking totally disinterested.
In a Copa Del Rey fixture this season, Barcelona lost here against Atleti by a 4-0 score line as they self-destructed, and although they won the return fixture by a 3-0 score Barca were eliminated.
For their part, Atletico Madrid are 4th in LA Liga this season, picking up 40 points at home with a 13-1-2 home record, and the most recent of those losses was just 10 days aga when they lost 1-2 to ... you guessed it ... Barcelona.
When I consult my UCL spreadsheet, it says that Atletico Madrid make home advantage count in Europe, far better than Barca travel and so it has Atleti half a goal better and about 43% likely to win.
But when I put the same game into the LaLiga spreadsheet, which it could be argued is a better idea as it has far more data, and this is an all-Spanish tie then it says the Barcelona are better by 3/10th of a goal and that a price of 2.00 for an away win might be fair.
So what does that mean?
Is the Barca "fear factor" more potent in Spain and teams expect to be beaten?
Or does Barca travel small distances well but doesn't like air travel?
I feel that it's probably the fact that La Liga struggles to provide a real test for Barcelona and they stroll through 70% of their games without much effort ... which doesn't help us here.
Looking at the head to head over the last 2 years, these teams have met 10 times in all competitions, with Barcelona leading the results 6-1-3 at all venues. When played at Atletico Madrid's The Metropolitano, we see just 1 Atleti win, and four Barcelona victories.
Then we have the game situation. Atletico Madrid lead 2-0. They don't need to come forward. Atleti will happily take a 0-0 draw, and/or even a 0-1 loss as they will progress. So expect caution from the home side.
And maybe expect a wee bit of caution from Barcelona too, as they know to go on all out attack as they did in the first match is simply to invite a counter attack which atleti are masters of doing.
So we're left with a situation where the away side needs to win by a couple of goals - and that reminds me of a famous night at Anfield in 1989 when Arsenal came calling to face Liverpool needing the same result a win by 2 goals.
Arsenal were searching for their first title in 18 years, while Liverpool had won the title TEN (!!) times in that gap and were the undisputed masters of English football. No one gave Arsenal a chance. No one.
Arsenal won that night, by playing tight, safe, football especially in the 1st half and Liverpool didn't come forward. Arsenal scored early in the second half, and Liverpool ? Well they still didn't come forward.
The night is history as Arsenal scored a second goal late on in injury time and won 2-0 to stun Liverpool and the Kop. A league title won after 18 years of trying. Cue an all-night party that began in the Anfield dressing room and ended back in North London.
Why did I tell you that? Not just to annoy Liverpool fans, but to also point out that sometimes the situation shapes a game more than it should.
I would not be surprised if it's 0-0 at halftime again. If Barcelona score then expect more defence from Atletico - and it's that fact that makes me say I can't back Atletico here.
So, after racking my brain, consulting spreadsheets, going on a nostalgic journey I end up with the same RESULT as Auls has picked. I expect Barcelona to win the game, although I am not sure if they'll win the tie.
Of course we could all be stunned and Atletico could win again.
Or Atleti could launch a counter attack late on and grab a vital goal when Barca get desperate and go all out, because Barcelona's high line defence in 2026 is not as strong as the famous ARSENAL back four was in 1989 !!
But still overall - I think that Barcelona will win this match.
Take BARCELONA TO WIN prices are down to 1.80 now ... as everyone is on it ... so I don't know if it's worth taking.
