UEFA Nations
2026-09-24 - Portugal vs Wales
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Nations League Match Day 1
Thursday 24th September 2026 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Portugal
Eyebrows were raised when Roberto Martinez was appointed manager of Portugal and the Last 16 exit to Spain at the 2026 World Cup meant a resignation was offered. He did lead Portugal to success at the last Nations League, but Martinez will have been aware that the performances at Euro 2024 and the last World Cup were not up to the level expected.
Jorge Jesus is the next manager to come in and it is perhaps a surprise that Cristiano Ronaldo has been called up with many expecting the legendary player to have retired after the World Cup. Some fans will be worried about the continued inclusion of Ronaldo, although Portugal have struggled to build up a natural replacement to lead the line.
Portugal had been unbeaten in 9 games and had won 6 of those before the defeat to Spain in what was a poor World Cup effort all around. They are the only nation to have won this Nations League twice after upsetting Spain in the last Final, while Portugal won all 4 home games in this competition the last time it was played.
Wales
Burnley failed to get a deal concluded to take on Craig Bellamy as manager of the club in the summer and that means he will continue in his role as national manager of Wales. Despite some positives under Bellamy's guidance, which has led to interest from English clubs to appoint him as manager, Wales have not reached either of the last two major international tournaments.
However, they did earn Promotion from League B of the Nations League and that will mean the next two months is going to challenge Wales as they enter a Group with some of the elite teams in the UEFA Confederation. The last World Cup Qualifying campaign ended in disappointment with Wales finishing behind Belgium in the Group and then losing on Penalties to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Play Offs.
Wales had a poor set of friendly results in June and that means they have won just 2 of the last 9 games played in all competitions. The side have only lost 1 of the last 7 away competitive games in the Nations League and World Cup Qualifier Group Stage, and Wales have won 3 of those matches, albeit at a lower level than the one they will face in this international break.
A number of players have withdrawn from the Wales squad for the October international games and that restricts Craig Bellamy's options.
Head to Head
Portugal and Wales have only met once before in a competitive fixture and that ended 2-0 in favour of the former at the Euro 2016 Semi Final.
Portugal beat Wales in a home international friendly all the way back in June 2000.
Prediction
A new manager is going to try and find a way to unlock the Portugal potential without irritating Cristiano Ronaldo.
Many may have hoped Ronaldo would make a decision for Jorge Jesus by retiring from international football as expected, but that has not been the case and so there is going to be a challenge to be met by the new manager.
He doest at least begin this Nations League defence by facing what may be the weakest team in the Group.
That may have been the case even if a full strength Welsh team were going to be travelling, but a number of key performers miss out for Craig Bellamy and that has had the layers scrambling to shorten the Portuguese price as much as they can.
Portugal have struggled at the back over the last couple of years, which has hindered their chances, but Wales are going to be missing Harry Wilson and that hurts their creativity. It may be enough of an edge for Portugal to keep a relatively rare clean sheet from recent matches and there is enough attacking quality to believe the home team will find the goals needed to secure three opening points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Portugal 3-0 Wales
