German Bundesliga
2026-10-31 - Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
WWK Arena – Augsburg
Saturday, 31st October 2026 - kickoff 15:30 CET
Augsburg
Augsburg have gone five Bundesliga games without a win, but they have not been easy to beat. Three of those matches ended in draws, including a 1-1 against Union Berlin last weekend. They also held Bayern Munich to a 2-2 draw earlier this month.
Manuel Baum's side got back to winning ways in the cup on Tuesday, beating Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-4 away. They will be glad to return to the WWK Arena, where they have lost just once in their last 16 Bundesliga home games. Their last three Bundesliga home matches have all ended level, though, so turning those performances into three points remains the challenge.
Augsburg have several absentees to manage. Juma Bah is suspended, while Noahkai Banks, Calvin Brackelmann, Tim Breithaupt and Steve Mounié are unavailable. Alexis Claude-Maurice is also doubtful.
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg have had a difficult week in the Bundesliga, losing 2-1 to Bayer Leverkusen before a 1-3 home defeat to Bayern Munich. Those results followed a strong start to the season, and Julian Schuster will want his side to avoid another league setback.
There was some relief in midweek, as SC Freiburg beat Wolfsburg in the DFB Pokal. Two late goals from Keisuke Goto sealed a dramatic 3-2 win and secured their place in the next round. They now need to carry that momentum into the Bundesliga, where they sit third with 13 points from seven matches.
SC Freiburg have played a busy schedule, with Bundesliga, DFB Cup and European fixtures coming in quick succession. Philipp Treu has picked up an injury against Wolfsburg and is doubtful for this game. Derry Scherhant and Jordy Makengo could return after missing the cup tie, and other changes are possible.
The Betting Verdict
Augsburg's home record makes this a tricky away trip, even with SC Freiburg sitting higher in the table. The hosts have drawn plenty of games lately, while SC Freiburg need to show they can turn a cup win into better league form.
It’s a tricky game to bet on a winner, but I think Augsburg can get something from it. SC Freiburg is playing on three fronts and rotating a lot, but fatigue is already showing.
Augsburg straight win offers valuable odds, but I will protect it with a draw and a double-chance bet on Augsburg as the recommended bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Augsburg 1-0 SC Freiburg
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Augsburg to win or draw (1X) at odds of 1.68 with Cloudbet
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Freiburg have made a very good start to the season and are sitting third, but I’m not convinced that position tells the whole story. They’ve had a kind draw and played four of their first seven games at home.
Away from home, Freiburg look a much more ordinary proposition, with a win, a draw and a defeat from their first three trips.
Augsburg are much the same sort of side, generally more comfortable at home than on the road. Their home record is only 1-3-0, but two of those draws came against Bundesliga heavyweights Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
That Bayern result earned us a very nice double-chance payout at 6.90 just three weeks ago, so we’ve already had a reason to smile at Augsburg’s result and at the expense of the bookmakers.
My spreadsheet rates Augsburg 60 points higher than Freiburg, equivalent to roughly six-tenths of a goal. I was surprised to see them priced as outsiders at home.
Throw in Freiburg’s European commitments, which are beginning to take their toll on the “Breisgau Brazilians” (a nickname with a story), and this starts to look rather interesting.
We’re in familiar +EV territory here. I reckon Augsburg have around a 50% chance of getting the result, yet we’re being offered odds just above 3.00.
That looks generous to me. Freiburg may be third in the table, but league positions don’t automatically make a team worth backing at any price.
TAKE: Augsburg to win at 3.10 with Bet365
Away from home, Freiburg look a much more ordinary proposition, with a win, a draw and a defeat from their first three trips.
Augsburg are much the same sort of side, generally more comfortable at home than on the road. Their home record is only 1-3-0, but two of those draws came against Bundesliga heavyweights Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
That Bayern result earned us a very nice double-chance payout at 6.90 just three weeks ago, so we’ve already had a reason to smile at Augsburg’s result and at the expense of the bookmakers.
My spreadsheet rates Augsburg 60 points higher than Freiburg, equivalent to roughly six-tenths of a goal. I was surprised to see them priced as outsiders at home.
Throw in Freiburg’s European commitments, which are beginning to take their toll on the “Breisgau Brazilians” (a nickname with a story), and this starts to look rather interesting.
We’re in familiar +EV territory here. I reckon Augsburg have around a 50% chance of getting the result, yet we’re being offered odds just above 3.00.
That looks generous to me. Freiburg may be third in the table, but league positions don’t automatically make a team worth backing at any price.
TAKE: Augsburg to win at 3.10 with Bet365
