German Bundesliga
2026-10-31 - Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football; Germany: Bundesliga
Allianz Arena – Munich
Saturday, 31st October 2026 - kickoff 18:30 CET
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have been relentless at home, scoring 18 goals in their first three Bundesliga games at the Allianz Arena.
In their recent games, they followed a 1-3 away win over SC Freiburg last weekend with a 6-1 cup win over Magdeburg midweek, so they are in proper shape for Der Klassiker. Their attack is firing, and Michael Olise has been especially dangerous, with six goals and three assists in the Bundesliga.
Bayern Munich have won 17 of their last 22 Bundesliga matches and drawn the other five. They have scored 25 goals in seven Bundesliga games, but this will be a much tougher test than their recent home fixtures. Borussia Dortmund have the strongest defense in Germany (only 4 goals conceded since the start), so the Bavarians may need patience to break them down.
There is one major change on the touchline. Coach Vincent Kompany is recovering from meningeal irritation and will miss this game, leaving assistant coach Aaron Danks in charge.
Luis Díaz is also unavailable, while Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlović are doubts. Jamal Musiala could return, but his availability remains uncertain.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund have matched Bayern Munich's Bundesliga record, taking 17 points from their first seven matches, which is good for the league.
Last week they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0, then beat Werder Bremen 3-2 in the DFB Cup. That midweek game was intense, as Borussia Dortmund slipped from 2-0 to 2-2, only for Marcel Sabitzer to score a match-winner in stoppage time.
The biggest strength of Niko Kovac's side has been their defense. Borussia Dortmund have conceded only 4 goals in 7 Bundesliga games and kept 5 clean sheets. They have also gone 9 Bundesliga matches without defeat
Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has been in excellent form, saving 82% of shots he's faced. If Borussia Dortmund can keep their shape and limit space around Harry Kane, they have a real chance to frustrate the hosts.
The Betting Verdict
This is a much closer contest than the odds suggest. Bayern Munich have been outstanding at home, but Borussia Dortmund are organized at the back and have conceded just four goals in the Bundesliga. Kompany's absence adds another uncertainty for the hosts.
I prefer Under 4.5 Goals as a main bet here. Bayern Munich can score in bunches, but Borussia Dortmund have the defensive record to make this a tighter game.
I expect both teams to be cautious in such an important early-season clash, and this line gives us room for a 2-1 or 2-2 without needing to guess the winner.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bayern Munich 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Under 4.5 Goals at odds of 1.54 at 12Play Sports
