NCAA Football
2026-11-07 - Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : College Football Week 10
Saturday 7th November 2026 - Scheduled 12pm EST
5pm (British Time)
Preview
Five of the Big 12 have been given a top twenty-five Ranking, but it is very difficult to make a case for more than one team from this Conference being invited into the College Football Playoff Bracket.
After nine weeks of College Football action, only one of the Big 12 teams has an unbeaten record, and teams like the Baylor Bears (5-3) are almost certainly eliminated from contention. The Bears have a 3-2 record within the Conference and the motivation has to be trying to push past a number of rivals and earn a spot in the Championship Game, while they are also a win away from earning Bowl eligibility even that is not going to be in the Playoffs.
Back to back losses and finishing with a losing record in three of the last four years meant Baylor decided to fire Head Coach Dave Aranda after a Week 8 defeat. There would have been some concerns that the team may lose focus, but the crushing win over the UCF Knights last time out has give Baylor some momentum as they return home.
This week the Bears are facing the Iowa State Cyclones (4-4) who are 2-3 in the Big 12 in Head Coach Jimmy Rogers' first season after long-time Head Coach Matt Campbell departed for Penn State.
Matt Campbell has raised the levels at Iowa State and they finished with winning records in eight of the last nine seasons, which clearly impressed bigger schools. Last season the Cyclones finished with an 8-4 record, while they won narrowly in Week 9 to keep them on track for another winning season having previously lost three of four games.
They are unsurprisingly a work in progress under a new Head Coach and the Cyclones may not match up very well with the Baylor Bears on either side of the ball in this Big 12 game.
The Cyclones would love to lean on the Offensive Line and pound the ball, which in turn will keep the stronger Baylor Offensive unit on the sidelines. However, the Bears Defensive Line have prided themselves by playing the run as they have all season and they will certainly look to force the road team to look to the air behind the arm of Jaylen Raynor.
The Quarter Back did have over 300 passing yards with 3 Touchdowns in the win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys and that will give him confidence, but Jaylen Raynor has been inconsistent. If he can use the momentum from last week, Raynor should have success throwing against this Baylor Secondary, although he will also need to be aware of the ability of the Defensive Backs to step up front of throws.
Playing from behind the chains would also mean Jaylen Raynor will need the Offensive Line to find a way to cool what has been a fierce Baylor pass rush, one that has helped force mistakes that the Secondary have exploited.
Running the ball should be more comfortable for the Baylor Bears if you are solely focused on the performance of the Cyclones Defensive Line, but it should be stated that Baylor have simply not been able to run the ball well all season. So while you would expect them to have one of their better games up front, the reality is that the Bears will go as far as Quarter Back DJ Lagway can take them.
It did not quite work out for Lagway with the Florida Gators, but he has been comfortable playing in a Conference where Quarter Backs have tended to pile up big numbers. In his two seasons with the Gators, DJ Lagway did have 28 passing Touchdowns, but added 23 Interceptions, and that makes the season he is putting together feel like a big uptick from previous form.
DJ Lagway has 16 passing Touchdowns for the Bears and just 4 Interceptions, and his recent form suggests the Quarter Back is about to become the latest to attack this Iowa State Secondary with real success. The Cyclones have been allowing far too many passing yards, while the lack of pass rush pressure has allowed the opposition Quarter Back the time needed to make the throws wherever they want.
This should be a game in which Baylor are capable of moving the ball with some consistency and that should put them in a position where they can snap a two game losing run to Iowa State.
The last two road games played by Iowa State have ended in blowout defeats and this has the makings of being another in Week 10 of the 2026 season.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite in this Big 12 game.
The Pick :
Baylor Bears 34-20 Iowa State Cyclones
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Baylor Bears - 9 Points at -111 with Bookmaker.euCanadian Customers Can Now Play with Bet365)
